#铸造交易HMSTR PreToken，提前锁定空投收益 Over the weekend, a consolidation at low levels. On Saturday, BTC once tested the 52000 level, and then rebounded to 54000. It consolidated around the 54000 level on Sunday morning. Pay attention to this position, which is similar to the position after the 8/5 Long Wick Candle automatic Rebound. In just over a month, there have been repeated attempts to test 55000.

Where does the support in the midst of BTC pessimism come from? Is 49000 a deterministic bottom?
For the current market situation, I think what everyone is more concerned about is where the bottom is and what support is available to stop the continued decline?
I looked at the situation of the MA and EMA moving averages. From the 7-day to the highest 200-day moving average, there are not many effective supports below. If we look at the monthly chart, the most critical support on the monthly chart is at 44,000. This position can be said to be a very pessimistic position.
I checked the market data again, and the 3-day MA120 has run to around 52,700. Currently, the most direct and effective support is also at this level. In addition to support, what everyone is more concerned about is whether the previous low of 49,000 on the daily candlestick is a decisive bottom, which is very important for the current trend.
If so, then this decline can be stopped above 49,000, oscillate, rebound, and we will basically usher in a good structural and stable trend. If not, if 49,000 is broken and the decline expands, and there is a lack of effective major support below, then we really have to look at faith.
Personally, my expectations are not optimistic for the moment.
1. Currently, there is no effective data or Favourable Information in the macro narrative that can drive longs Rebound or reverse the price. At present, the mainstream narrative is interest rate cuts, but the narrative of interest rate cuts is ineffective. The narrative of a 25 basis point interest rate cut is ineffective. Under the premise of economic stability, a 50 basis point interest rate cut will have an economic driving effect, but it may not necessarily reverse the market trend.
2. In the short term, the price continues to fluctuate and decline. Although it has temporarily stopped falling, the hourly chart, including the daily and weekly moving averages, is starting to move downward, and there is no divergence. The price may get closer to the point of 49,000.
And during the sensitive period before and after the interest rate cut, especially after the cut, the market may be overly sensitive to economic data, especially negative data. In this tense atmosphere, the buffer zone at 49,000 is clearly insufficient.
So, I don't think the market outlook for next week is too optimistic, unless there is a reversal of the downward trend, a pump with fluctuations, providing enough buffer zone for 49,000. Otherwise, once the interest rate is lowered, there is a high possibility of a significant fluctuation that directly breaks through the 49,000 level.
Currently, we need to first determine whether the 52,700 level of the 3-day line has become an effective support, whether there can be a Rebound, and whether it can effectively stimulate buying volume. If the support at this level is insufficient, then it is really dangerous near 49,000. Of course, being not optimistic does not mean letting everyone be pessimistic. Take one step at a time, and never stand at 50,000 and look at 20,000. This kind of overly bearish view is meaningless and only consumes one's own spirit.