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Accumulated excess savings peaked in August 2021 at more than $2.1 trillion and then gradually declined. U.S. household budgets have benefited from excess savings and pandemic-related debt relief over the past three years, but those policy dividends are coming to an end. Credit card delinquency rates continue to trend upward amid growing signs that consumers are feeling the pinch of high prices. In a high-interest-rate capital environment, high costs show little sign of easing. The U.S. debt has plummeted recently, and U.S. bond yields have continued to rise. The era of low U.S. bond interest

On the macro front, Moody's remains with the issue of credit ratings, which Moody's still believes are the safest for the U.S. government bonds at the moment, but whether that will change will have to wait for a decision after the reassessment. There is also the Fitch rating agency, which decided in August to downgrade the credit rating of the U.S. government, which at the time had the same rating as Moody's, which was AAA, but was later downgraded to AA+, which means that when the government borrows, it has to pay a higher interest rate.
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There was some good news on the U.S. economy, with Goldman Sachs saying the chances of a recession in the U.S. have dropped from 20% to 15%, although the U.S. is already in recession. As the situation unfolds, many are poring over economic data on employment and unemployment, retail sales, manufacturing, and more. All of these analysts say the chances of the U.S. falling into a deeper recession are slim and not deep. The next FOMC meeting is held in about three weeks, and there is a 92% chance that interest rates will not be raised again, with interest rates already set at 5.25%-5.5%.
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