The crypto assets market suffered a heavy fall in early winter, with BTC dropping below $87,000, indicating overall weak risk appetite. Meanwhile, the U.S. stock market performed strongly, with the S&P 500 index rising by 3.7%. Holiday sales data was good, and the economic fundamentals remain robust. The next focus will be on the Fed meeting and related economic data to assess future policy direction.

After experiencing a sharp selling off last week, Crypto Assets are showing initial signs of stabilization. On Monday morning, prices rebounded from a low slightly above 80,000, trading close to 88,000. With Fed Chair Williams reigniting expectations for a rate cut in December, the market entered the Thanksgiving holiday week with some cautious optimism. A strong rebound in the stock market (S&P 500 +1.5%, Nasdaq +2.7%) and early rebalancing flows as the month-end approaches also helped boost risk sentiment.
Risk sentiment has broadly improved, and the open interest in BTC options has slightly turned positive, with the put/call ratio for options expiring at the end of the month around 0.67. A large number of put options have strike prices concentrated around 80,000, with a skew towards put options being aggressively bought, while call options are being heavily sold. The market undoubtedly feels better hedged against further declines, allowing it to enjoy a rebound above the support level of 82,000.

November 17th, 4 PM Hong Kong Time)
$95,600) ETH to USD: -11.6% ($3,620
The rebound brought by the news of the U.S. government's restart was short-lived. The market approached the support zone of $98,000-$100,000 but then fell again. This led to a price drop to the support level of $93,000-$94,000, which has successfully absorbed selling pressure and has been maintained. Currently, it seems that the decline that started from $112,500-$115,000 after the flash crash in October has basically ended, although it is difficult to determine the exact low point, we believe that the small declines below this level provide a good buying opportunity.

Over the past week, cryptocurrency prices have declined again. BTC fell back after reaching $94,000 on Monday due to lighter selling pressure. Major cryptocurrencies dropped by another 10-20% week-on-week, and market sentiment has become unprecedentedly pessimistic, even surpassing the previous bear market. While macro headwinds can explain part of the selling pressure, the performance of cryptocurrencies has indeed lagged behind most other asset classes, including the leveraged tech stocks that are most correlated with them.
In addition, following the market crash in October, ongoing rumors about market makers suffering significant losses led to a noticeable decline in order book liquidity, exacerbating market volatility, especially downward volatility.
It is not surprising that we have witnessed rapid deleveraging and actual capital outflows across the entire cryptocurrency sector. After large-scale liquidations of futures on centralized exchanges, ETF capital outflows and DAT sales also reached new highs for the year, with BlackRock's IBIT recording the highest single-day outflow in history.

Core data (Hong Kong time November 3 16:00 → November 10 16:00)
BTC/USD: -1.0% ($107,200 → $106,200) ETH/USD: -1.9% ($3,690 → $3,620)
After finally breaking through the psychological barrier of $100,000 last week, positive news from Washington over the weekend drove the market to rebound at the beginning of this week, probing the previous support (now turned resistance) level/range of $104,000 - $107,000. If it breaks through the $107,000 - $108,000 range, given that $108,000 - $114,000 is a key/volatile range, we expect the market to experience some upward acceleration. If the price effectively breaks through the resistance level, it indicates that this round of long-term adjustment may have been completed, and the market may be preparing to test historical highs quickly and with volatility. Next, we believe this will lead to a...

Last week, macro assets performed poorly, with the Nasdaq index experiencing a severe fall, influenced by the artificial intelligence bubble and economic data. The surge in layoffs and declining consumer confidence raised concerns in the market, but a government shutdown is expected to be resolved. Trump proposed a new stimulus plan that may impact finances. Meanwhile, the crypto market is under pressure, with established Privacy Coins performing strongly, leading to a cautiously optimistic overall market outlook.