The Fed's dot plot is dovish, with rate cuts twice in 2026, once in 2027, and no change in 2028. The much-anticipated liquidity expansion fell flat, and CZ mentioned that the super cycle driven by the Fed's massive liquidity injection for $BTC is also unlikely to materialize.

The Fed purchased $40 billion worth of US Treasuries, which many thought was a balance sheet expansion and liquidity injection, but in fact, it is an RMP operation. Unlike QE and QT, RMP is aimed at maintaining the minimum reserve requirement safety threshold of the banking system, preventing excessive fund depletion by the end of the year. Essentially, it is about replenishing the water that has fallen out, not adding more water. Moreover, before April 2026, the pace will be rapid, after which the scale of purchases will decrease sharply. $SOL $BNB $ETH
What truly determines liquidity is whether the SLR is relaxed, whether banks can expand their balance sheets, whether the Treasury replenishes its reserves, and whether the Fed reduces the ON RRP scale.
Next, the non-farm payroll data on December 16 and the CPI data on December 18 are crucial. Non-farm payrolls are likely to be weak, with focus on CPI. If November CPI does not rebound after rate cuts, the Fed’s further easing will be less hindered. Currently, the macro environment is not very optimistic, so everyone should stay alert and make cautious decisions!