Liệu đồng AUD có thể tăng giá vào năm 2025 không? Dự đoán xu hướng tỷ giá và cơ hội cùng rủi ro trong tương lai

Australian Dollar Future Trends Key Analysis: Three Major Factors Determine Rebound Potential

As the fifth largest traded currency globally, AUD/USD remains one of the most liquid currency pairs worldwide. However, this high-yielding currency, once favored, has faced persistent weakness over the past decade. Since early 2013 at around 1.05, the AUD has depreciated over 35%, while the US Dollar Index has risen by 28.35%. What underlying factors are at play? Does the AUD have a chance to turn around in the future?

The identity of the AUD as a “commodity currency” shapes its trajectory. Due to Australia’s economy’s heavy reliance on exports of iron ore, coal, copper, and other bulk commodities, any fluctuations in global raw material prices directly impact the AUD exchange rate. This sensitivity can lead to remarkable gains during bullish periods (e.g., a 38% surge against the USD in 2020), but also makes it more vulnerable to sharp declines.

Entering 2025, the outlook for the AUD becomes even more complex. Early in the year, amid escalating trade tensions, AUD/USD fell to 0.5933, a five-year low. However, after the panic caused by Trump’s “reciprocal tariffs” eased in April, the AUD gradually appreciated. Notably, in September, driven by soaring iron ore and gold prices, and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, AUD/USD briefly rose to 0.6636, surpassing the high since November 2024.

Three Core Factors Influencing AUD Exchange Rate Forecast

To assess whether the AUD can truly “recover,” close attention must be paid to changes in the following three dimensions:

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Policy and Domestic Economic Performance

In Q3 2025, Australia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.3% month-over-month, exceeding the previous quarter’s 0.7% and surpassing market expectations. The RBA signaled caution, emphasizing that core inflation pressures in housing and services sectors are stubbornly high and difficult to cool. They explicitly stated that only after inflation enters a sustainable downward trajectory would further easing be considered.

What does this imply? In the short term, a cooling of easing expectations could support the AUD. When the RBA adopts a more cautious stance, the AUD becomes more attractive relative to currencies eager to cut rates (like the USD). However, the strength and durability of this support still depend on upcoming economic data.

US Dollar Movements: The Divide Between Strength and Weakness

In October, the Federal Reserve announced a second 25 basis point rate cut for the year, but Chair Powell’s comments dampened market expectations for continued easing. Despite ongoing discussions about USD depreciation and de-dollarization trends, the DXY index rebounded from around 96 in summer, showing resilience with a roughly 3% rebound. Many analysts believe the probability of the USD breaking above the key psychological level of 100 is increasing.

The general rule is: a stronger USD tends to weaken the AUD—and vice versa—indicating an inverse correlation. Therefore, the Fed’s policy stance and the USD’s relative strength directly influence the AUD’s upside potential.

China’s Economic Recovery — The “Lifeline” for AUD

This may be the most underestimated factor. Australia’s economy is highly resource-dependent, with China being its largest buyer. China’s demand for iron ore, coal, natural gas, and other raw materials largely determines the long-term trend of the AUD.

When China’s economy shows signs of robust recovery, resource exports and prices tend to rise, boosting market confidence in AUD assets. Conversely, if China’s recovery slows, especially with ongoing weakness in the property sector, concerns about raw material demand surface, causing the AUD to lose key support and weaken. This is the most critical long-term variable in AUD exchange rate forecasts.

Divergence Among Institutions: How High Can the AUD Rise?

Major global financial institutions hold differing views on the AUD’s future. Morgan Stanley is relatively optimistic, projecting AUD/USD could reach 0.72 by the end of 2025, citing the RBA’s potential hawkish stance and strengthening commodity prices as support.

UBS is more cautious. While acknowledging Australia’s economic resilience, concerns about global trade uncertainties and potential Fed policy shifts lead them to expect the AUD to stay around 0.68 by year-end.

The most conservative outlook comes from CBA Economists, who believe the current rebound may be short-lived. They forecast the AUD will hit a short-term high in March 2026 but may decline again by year-end, reasoning that although the USD might weaken in 2025, the US economy’s faster growth could cause the dollar to strengthen again.

Comparative Forecasts for Different Currency Pairs

AUD/USD: Core Trading Pair

In the short term, expect AUD/USD to fluctuate between 0.63 and 0.66. If inflation data remains positive and the economy stays stable, it may test resistance above 0.66. Conversely, if global risk sentiment worsens or the USD rebounds, the pair could fall back toward 0.63 or lower. The key medium-term level is the 200-day moving average at 0.6464; a confirmed break above could open a rebound space toward 0.6550–0.6600.

AUD/CNY: Barometer of Trade Relations

The stability of Sino-Australian trade heavily influences this pair. Given China’s overall stable trend, AUD/CNY may oscillate between 4.6 and 4.75 over the next 1-3 months. If the yuan weakens due to domestic economic pressures, AUD/CNY could temporarily rise toward 4.8. Long-term, this pair largely follows AUD/USD but with slightly smaller declines (due to lower RMB volatility).

AUD/MYR: Regional Economic Mirror

Malaysia’s economy also depends on exports and raw materials, with the ringgit sensitive to commodity prices. Amid global economic uncertainties, AUD/MYR may fluctuate between 3.0 and 3.15. If Australian economic data weakens further, it could test support near 3.0. Conversely, if global demand remains stable, the ringgit may strengthen relatively.

Trading Strategies for Different Cycles

Short-term (1-3 days): Range Trading

When AUD/USD oscillates between 0.6370 and 0.6450, adopt a high sell and low buy strategy. Breakouts above 0.6450 can be used for light long positions targeting 0.6464 and 0.6500. If it falls below 0.6373, consider short positions targeting 0.6336 or 0.6300. Be cautious ahead of data releases like US GDP, core PCE, and Australian CPI, as market volatility may increase.

Medium-term (1-3 weeks): Trend Following

Bullish scenario: Fed rate cut expectations rise, US employment weakens, inflation recedes, and trade tensions ease, leading to risk sentiment-driven rebound toward 0.6550–0.6600. Bearish scenario: US economy outperforms expectations, Fed delays rate cuts, trade tensions escalate, or China’s data weakens, causing the AUD to test lows for the year.

Long-term Holding: Gradual Positioning

Investors optimistic about the AUD long-term can build positions gradually at current lows, smoothing out market fluctuations over time. This strategy is especially effective after confirming an upward trend.

Summary: Core Points in AUD Exchange Rate Forecast

AUD/USD is currently at a crossroads of technical oscillation and fundamental debate. Short-term trading should focus on the 0.6370–0.6450 range, with breakout follow-up. The medium to long-term direction depends on signals from Fed policy shifts and whether global trade risks truly ease.

Investors should closely monitor three key indicators: whether the RBA maintains a hawkish stance, whether the USD index can break above 100, and the actual progress of China’s economic recovery. If this week’s economic data reinforce rate cut expectations, consider deploying long positions; otherwise, beware of USD rebound pressures. Flexibly adjusting strategies and responding dynamically to market sentiment are crucial for survival in this volatile environment.