#ARKM After Bitcoin completed its halving in 2016, it took about 525 days to reach its price peak; after the halving in 2020, it took approximately 546 days to climb to its highest point. As of now, after the halving in 2024, it seems to have approached its price peak in just about 280 days. There is a prevailing view in the current market that with the increasing number of Bitcoin halvings, the impact of each halving on the market will gradually diminish. This phenomenon is similar to the changes in functions in calculus, where values decrease progressively from large to small, until the impact becomes negligible. However, this is more of a long-term trend prediction for the future; regarding the current market situation, we have not yet reached this extent. Therefore, the fact that it touched the price peak in less than 300 days after the halving clearly does not conform to the conventional logic of market development. Thus, we might infer that in the future Bitcoin market, the cycles of bull and bear transitions may no longer follow the previous pattern of every 4 years; the once deeply ingrained market perception of "halving equals bull run" will gradually become blurred. The correlation between Bitcoin and U.S. stocks will become increasingly tight, and its market performance is likely to be significantly influenced by fluctuations in U.S. stocks, during which there may also be some small-scale bear market conditions. But will these bear markets evolve into deep bear markets? The greater possibility is that they are merely seemingly perilous bear traps.

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Special note! tonight 20:30,漂亮國至 3 月 15 日當週初請失業金人數這一關鍵數據即將重磅發佈。 該數據的前值為 22 萬,市場普遍預期本次將達到 22.4 萬。 這項數據在經濟領域的重要性評級高達★★★★☆,長期以來一直是衡量經濟形勢的核心風向標。 其任何細微的變化,都可能引發一系列連鎖反應,對整個金融市場的各個層面產生廣泛而深遠的影響。 投資者們早已嚴陣以待,紛紛對這次數據的公佈值展開猜測,究竟會帶來超出預期的驚喜,還是引發市場的意外波動,著實令人拭目待。 今日凌晨,美聯儲副主席鮑威爾召開會議後,比特幣價格從 8.35 萬美元一線迅速反彈至 8.75 萬美元。 今日比特幣整體處於高位調整狀態,目前價格承壓後退,正在試探 8.5 萬美元關口,這一位置是近期極為關鍵的支撐與阻力轉換點。 從小時線走勢分析,比te 幣價格仍存在繼續下探的可能性,下方重點關注 BOLL 下軌在 8.45 萬美元附近的支撐強度。 那么,tonight初請失業金數據公佈後,bit幣市場是否會迎來如何樣全新的局面? 讓我們同期待市場給出答案。