Australian Dollar Falls on Rate Hike Doubts, RBA August Increase Probability Down to 15%

According to analyst Sagar Dua reported by Jin10, on Wednesday (July 1), the Australian dollar fell against major currencies amid surging U.S. Treasury yields and rising risk-off sentiment. The RBA's August rate decision has been priced with only a 15% probability of raising the cash rate from 4.35%, down from earlier expectations. A 50% probability now favors the end of the current rate hike cycle, as recovering oil prices and stabilizing global inflation expectations have dampened the central bank's hawkish outlook.
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