Grayscale warned June 26 that stalled crypto legislation could add pressure to bitcoin and digital asset treasuries as the CLARITY Act faces a compressed Senate calendar. The asset management firm said developments around the bill could play a decisive role in shaping market sentiment and structure in the near term, with regulatory progress emerging as a key catalyst for bitcoin's direction. Galaxy Research cut the bill's passage odds to 50-50 amid Senate uncertainty, while traders watch whether Congress acts before weaker sentiment pushes prices lower.
Senate Banking Committee Advances CLARITY Act 15-9, Faces 60-Vote Threshold
The Senate Banking Committee advanced the CLARITY Act in a 15-9 vote, but the bill still requires 60 votes in the full Senate, coordination with the Senate Agriculture Committee, and reconciliation with the House version. Galaxy Research reduced its estimated odds of passage in 2026 to 50-50, pointing to the absence of a scheduled floor vote, no motion to proceed, and a lack of a unified committee draft.
Crypto advocates point to a Senate window from July 13 to Aug. 7, before the August recess crowds out floor time. Negotiations over ethics, anti-money laundering rules, and committee differences remain unresolved.
Grayscale Cites CLARITY Act Uncertainty Among Market Pressure Factors
Zach Pandl, Grayscale Head of Research, said Strategy and other digital asset treasury firms that hold bitcoin on their balance sheets could deleverage further if market conditions tighten. He stated:
"In a downside scenario, the CLARITY Act does not pass this year, Strategy and other DATs deleverage further, and the Fed is forced to raise rates due to persistent inflation."
Grayscale cited CLARITY Act uncertainty, Strategy's levered balance sheet, deleveraging among digital asset treasuries, and quantum-computing security concerns as factors weighing on crypto markets. The firm said expectations changed after President Donald Trump nominated Kevin Warsh, viewed as relatively hawkish, instead of Kevin Hassett, viewed as relatively dovish. With inflation still elevated, markets now expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates rather than cut them this year.
Pandl detailed:
"If downside risks materialize, we could see bitcoin fall moderately further."
Grayscale noted that prior cycles have seen bitcoin's price fall approximately 80%, but the firm does not think the peak-to-trough drawdown this cycle will be as deep this time around, due to the more muted bull market and stickier institutional demand for digital assets.
Senator Lummis Warns Failure Could Push Legislation to 2030
U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis (R-WY) has warned that failure to act could push comprehensive crypto legislation to 2030, leaving developers, consumers, exchanges, and enforcement agencies without a clearer federal framework. Crypto advocacy group Stand With Crypto has urged Senate leaders to schedule a vote before election priorities tighten the calendar.
FAQ
What did Grayscale warn about the CLARITY Act on June 26?
Grayscale warned June 26 that stalled crypto legislation could add pressure to bitcoin and digital asset treasuries as the CLARITY Act faces a compressed Senate calendar. The firm said developments around the bill could play a decisive role in shaping market sentiment and structure in the near term.
What are the odds of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 according to Galaxy Research?
Galaxy Research cut the CLARITY Act's passage odds to 50-50, pointing to the absence of a scheduled floor vote, no motion to proceed, and a lack of a unified committee draft. The Senate Banking Committee advanced the bill 15-9, but it still requires 60 votes in the full Senate, coordination with the Senate Agriculture Committee, and reconciliation with the House version.
What did Zach Pandl say about a downside scenario for bitcoin?
Zach Pandl, Grayscale Head of Research, stated: "In a downside scenario, the CLARITY Act does not pass this year, Strategy and other DATs deleverage further, and the Fed is forced to raise rates due to persistent inflation." He added: "If downside risks materialize, we could see bitcoin fall moderately further."
