Hana Securities analyst Lee Jae-man, who accurately predicted a major KOSPI correction one month prior, stated in an interview on 23rd that KOSPI could reach 10,000 points after recovering previous highs. Lee based his forecast on KOSPI-listed companies' annual net profit reaching 740-750 trillion won this year and exceeding 1000 trillion won next year. Lee previously gained market attention for publishing a report identifying the moment SK Hynix market capitalization would surpass Samsung Electronics as the KOSPI peak, approximately one month before the correction began.
Lee Jae-man Identified SK Hynix Market Cap Overtaking Samsung as KOSPI Peak
Lee Jae-man, head of Hana Securities Global Investment Analysis Division, published a report approximately one month before the correction began, designating the point when SK Hynix common stock market capitalization would surpass Samsung Electronics as the KOSPI peak. On 22nd of last month, when KOSPI closed at 9114.55, SK Hynix market capitalization surpassed Samsung Electronics. The following day, KOSPI closed at 8203.84, down 9.99% from the previous trading day, entering a correction phase.
SK Hynix 43% Decline Assessed as Excessive
Lee assessed SK Hynix's current situation, having plummeted 43% from its intraday peak, as "fundamentally different from 2022 when there were deficit concerns and excessively declined." A similar decline occurred during the period from late 2022 to 2023, but that reflected concerns about turning to deficit, making it different in nature from the current situation.
KOSPI Target Calculation Based on Corporate Profit Levels
Lee cited listed company profit scale as the basis for his index forecast. Considering that the index ranged between 2000-3000 when KOSPI annual net profit was in the 200 trillion won range, the appropriate index level for this year's estimated net profit of 740-750 trillion won would be 7500-8000. Given that next year's net profit forecast is expected to exceed 1000 trillion won, Lee judged that 10,000 points is possible. Lee stated, "Even without considering difficult indicators such as price-to-earnings ratio (PER), KOSPI 10,000 is possible from the perspective that the index is determined by the level of profit."
Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix Identified as Rally Leaders
Lee identified Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix as stocks that will lead the rebound. The reasoning is that the market still focuses on sectors with steep profit growth, and both stocks are expected to show earnings growth next year. Lee stated, "When semiconductors stabilize and the stock market recovers, semiconductor materials, parts, and equipment, as well as power equipment related to AI infrastructure, will still maintain leadership." Lee designated operating margin as an indicator to gauge future semiconductor stock prices. He stated, "Everyone knows that an 80% operating margin cannot be maintained. Then where the bottom is becomes important. Based on SK Hynix, if the operating margin reaches even 50%, it will be able to receive a higher multiple than TSMC."
On 23rd, KOSPI closed at 7096.89, up 299.19 points (4.40%) from the previous trading day, reclaiming the 7000 level.
FAQ
What did Lee Jae-man predict about KOSPI on 23rd?
Lee Jae-man stated in an interview on 23rd that KOSPI could reach 10,000 points after recovering previous highs, based on corporate profit levels reaching 740-750 trillion won this year and exceeding 1000 trillion won next year.
When did SK Hynix market capitalization surpass Samsung Electronics?
On 22nd of last month, when KOSPI closed at 9114.55, SK Hynix market capitalization surpassed Samsung Electronics. The following day, KOSPI fell 9.99% to 8203.84, entering a correction phase.
Which stocks did Lee identify as rally leaders?
Lee identified Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix as stocks that will lead the rebound, citing that both are expected to show earnings growth next year and the market focuses on sectors with steep profit growth.
