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Kevin Warsh's Hawkish Remarks Trigger Record U.S. Treasury Futures Volume, July Rate Hike Odds Hit 50%

2026-06-20 07:01:20

According to data disclosed by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) on June 18, U.S. Treasury futures trading surged to record levels following Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish remarks on June 17. Over 500,000 contracts traded in a single day—roughly four times the 20-day average—as traders rapidly repositioned bets on a potential July rate hike. Market pricing for July rate hike odds jumped from nearly zero to approximately 50%, according to CME and interest rate swap data, marking a sharp reversal in policy expectations.

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