Prediction Markets Show Stark Wealth Concentration: 84% of Traders Lose Money

Gate News message, April 17 — Prediction markets have emerged as platforms where wealth is heavily concentrated among a small elite, with research revealing that 84.1% of Polymarket traders are unprofitable. According to analyst Andrey Sergeenkov's April 2026 study, fewer than one in six users are in the green, a sharp decline from two years ago when approximately 40% of traders were profitable.

The concentration of gains is extreme. On-chain analysis from December 2025 by blockchain researcher DeFi Oasis found that less than 0.04% of Polymarket wallet addresses captured more than 70% of all realized profits, totaling $3.7 billion. Arizona Democrat Yassamin Ansari highlighted the disparity, calling Polymarket and Kalshi "casinos where the rich and powerful are the house and everyone else is the chips." Ansari is co-sponsoring the BETS OFF Act alongside other lawmakers to ban betting on events like war, terrorism, assassination, and government decisions.

Data on individual profitability paints a grim picture. Of 2.5 million wallets studied, only 2% had ever made more than $1,000 in total, 0.32% had cleared $10,000, and just 840 wallets (0.033%) had earned more than $100,000. The average Polymarket trade is $89, with 80% of traders never placing bets larger than $500 on average. Only 0.98% of traders have ever reached the U.S. average monthly salary of $5,000 in a single month, and just 35 people—0.0014% of the 2.5 million—managed to sustain that income for 12 consecutive months.

The findings come as major financial institutions enter the space. The Intercontinental Exchange, which owns the New York Stock Exchange, completed a $2 billion acquisition of Polymarket in March 2026. Kalshi raised $1 billion, reaching a $22 billion valuation. The BETS OFF Act and a separate bill called the Death Bets Act are not expected to pass in the current Congress, but observers say momentum for stronger user protections will continue.