SemiAnalysis Refutes Half-Capacity Cancellation Claims, Reports US Data Center Forecasts Adjusted Just 1% on June 18

According to a report released by independent research firm SemiAnalysis on June 18, the firm refuted widespread market claims that half of planned US data center capacity for 2026 would be canceled or delayed. SemiAnalysis stated that capacity forecasts for North American hyperscalers have been adjusted by only approximately 1% over the past six months, with outsourced data center capacity predictions shifting less than 5%, indicating overall construction momentum remains resilient despite recent market pessimism.

The firm attributed the panic to flawed data analysis and sampling bias. SemiAnalysis noted that market narratives citing "half of capacity cancelations" relied on incomplete statistics; for example, Sightline Climate data showing only 5GW under construction out of 12GW planned failed to account for major cloud providers' substantial in-house projects already exceeding 5GW, plus numerous third-party developments. SemiAnalysis concluded that delayed projects are concentrated in early-stage speculative ventures rather than core 2026 delivery capacity, which benefits from secured land, confirmed power agreements, regulatory approvals, and locked equipment orders.