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UK Swap Market Bets on 51 Basis Points Rate Hike by Year-End, First Rise Since July 14

Commodities Forex

2026-07-23 15:13:20

Swap market pricing shows a 100% probability of the Bank of England increasing rates by 51 basis points by year-end, the first upward revision since July 14, up from Wednesday's forecast of 44 basis points. This reflects strengthened market expectations for prolonged tight monetary conditions as oil prices remain above $100 per barrel. Market participants now expect cumulative rate hikes of 75 basis points by April 2027. The UK 10-year gilt yield rose 8 basis points to 5.11%.

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