Seoul foreign exchange dealers expect the USD-KRW exchange rate to face slight upward pressure this day, driven by rebound demand after the previous day's 29.70 won drop to 1,498.50 won and Middle East geopolitical developments. US President Donald Trump stated 'we don't want a long war,' suggesting limited market impact from US-Iran military tensions. Dealers cited bargain-hunting demand following the steep decline as a key factor for potential upward movement.
Market Factors Drive USD-KRW Outlook
The dollar-won rate closed at 1,498.50 won in the previous Seoul trading session, marking a 29.70 won decline. The magnitude of the drop has created conditions for low-price buying interest to emerge. US-Iran military confrontations resumed after a period of calm in the Middle East, though Trump's comment that 'we don't want a long war' indicated restraint. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.20% in overnight New York trading.
SK Hynix's American Depositary Receipt (ADR) listing is expected to supply dollars to the market, acting as a downward factor for the exchange rate. Bank of Korea Governor Shin Hyun-song is scheduled to attend a National Assembly briefing at 10 a.m. this day.
In the New York Non-Deliverable Forward (NDF) market, the USD-KRW 1-month contract was last quoted at 1,504.90 won (MID). Accounting for the recent 1-month swap point of -1.00 won, this represents a 7.40 won increase from the previous Seoul spot market close of 1,498.50 won.
Dealers Predict 1,500.00~1,515.00 Won Range
Three market participants provided outlook assessments. A securities firm dealer stated the USD-KRW fell excessively the previous day and has room to rise, noting the dollar-yen pair has retraced recent declines. The dealer cited SK Hynix ADR as a short-term downward factor and Middle East issues as unreliable due to volatility, pointing to the Nasdaq's resilience. Predicted range: 1,500.00~1,510.00 won.
A bank dealer noted the US drew a line against restarting full-scale war with Iran, expecting an ambiguous state to persist. The dealer identified SK Hynix ADR-related dollar inflows as strong downward pressure. Predicted range: 1,500.00~1,514.00 won.
Another bank dealer stated US-Iran geopolitical instability will burden risk assets and negatively affect the domestic stock market. Importer settlement demand was cited as an upward factor, while exporter negotiations and vigilance over Japanese authority intervention will limit the upper range. Predicted range: 1,500.00~1,515.00 won.
FAQ
What was the USD-KRW closing rate on the previous day?
The dollar-won exchange rate closed at 1,498.50 won in the previous Seoul trading session, marking a 29.70 won decline.
What range do dealers predict for USD-KRW this day?
Dealers forecast the exchange rate will trade between 1,500.00 and 1,515.00 won, with individual predictions ranging from 1,500.00~1,510.00 won to 1,500.00~1,515.00 won depending on the weighting of upward and downward factors.
