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Market Deep Dive: I Choose a "Stepwise Bottom-Fishing" Strategy Instead of Simply Waiting
In the face of market panic after Bitcoin (BTC) lost the critical support level of $74,000, my core approach is not to chase precise bottoms but to execute phased position building. Below is a detailed analysis and operational plan:
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1️⃣ Bottom Signal: The key zone is between $68,000 and $70,000, but I focus more on the market structure than specific price points.
· Technical Support: On a weekly chart, the $68,000-$70,000 range is a historically significant high point from previous breakouts and also
View OriginalIn the face of market panic after Bitcoin (BTC) lost the critical support level of $74,000, my core approach is not to chase precise bottoms but to execute phased position building. Below is a detailed analysis and operational plan:
---
1️⃣ Bottom Signal: The key zone is between $68,000 and $70,000, but I focus more on the market structure than specific price points.
· Technical Support: On a weekly chart, the $68,000-$70,000 range is a historically significant high point from previous breakouts and also
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The most dangerous behavior in the crypto world is
to package gambling as long-termism in any environment.
So you'll find a very ironic thing: once you're caught, they will definitely say spot trading is not afraid, and even more so, that the next bull market will definitely reach certain levels. This sounds like long-termism, but in reality, it's just finding an indefinite postponement for current wrong decisions.
The real risk is not floating losses,
but when someone starts using the next bull market to numb themselves, avoiding the questions of whether to cut losses or make adjustments now.
View Originalto package gambling as long-termism in any environment.
So you'll find a very ironic thing: once you're caught, they will definitely say spot trading is not afraid, and even more so, that the next bull market will definitely reach certain levels. This sounds like long-termism, but in reality, it's just finding an indefinite postponement for current wrong decisions.
The real risk is not floating losses,
but when someone starts using the next bull market to numb themselves, avoiding the questions of whether to cut losses or make adjustments now.
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ChristmasEve:
New Year Wealth Explosion 🤑:View More
Discuss the three major macro events this week.
Currently, the transmission chain affecting the market mainly involves interest rate expectations and the strength of the US dollar, followed by judgments of positive or negative signals.
The biggest suspense is the Treasury Department's quarterly refinancing (QRA).
In fact, it's easier to judge if you think of it as the Treasury Department borrowing money:
February 2nd (Monday): Release of refinancing estimates.
February 4th (Wednesday): Official quarterly refinancing announcement.
We all know that under the backdrop of policy interest rates rem
View OriginalCurrently, the transmission chain affecting the market mainly involves interest rate expectations and the strength of the US dollar, followed by judgments of positive or negative signals.
The biggest suspense is the Treasury Department's quarterly refinancing (QRA).
In fact, it's easier to judge if you think of it as the Treasury Department borrowing money:
February 2nd (Monday): Release of refinancing estimates.
February 4th (Wednesday): Official quarterly refinancing announcement.
We all know that under the backdrop of policy interest rates rem
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ChristmasEve:
New Year Wealth Explosion 🤑:View More
A new low is just one step away
1. The market generally expected a rebound to 100,000 after two months of rally, but the cunning dog whales stopped at 98,000, initiating a new round of decline.
2. Yesterday's decline saw increasing trading volume, and we are now just one step away from the previous low of 80,600. It is expected that breaking below the previous low to create a new low will trigger long liquidations, leading some short positions to cover, causing a brief rebound. There is no need to chase short positions here.
View Original1. The market generally expected a rebound to 100,000 after two months of rally, but the cunning dog whales stopped at 98,000, initiating a new round of decline.
2. Yesterday's decline saw increasing trading volume, and we are now just one step away from the previous low of 80,600. It is expected that breaking below the previous low to create a new low will trigger long liquidations, leading some short positions to cover, causing a brief rebound. There is no need to chase short positions here.
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Elainee:
2026 Go Go Go 👊:View More
For the upcoming market trend, don't be overly optimistic, but I also think there's no need to be too pessimistic.
The market will have a rebound but definitely not a reversal. A major trend may still take time, but a Spring Festival rally is worth looking forward to.
In terms of operation, don't go all-in at once, as that's gambling. But if you still have positions or are waiting on the sidelines, gradually pick some promising altcoins that have fallen out of value and build your positions slowly. After such a deep decline, the downward room is limited, but the upward potential might be great
View OriginalThe market will have a rebound but definitely not a reversal. A major trend may still take time, but a Spring Festival rally is worth looking forward to.
In terms of operation, don't go all-in at once, as that's gambling. But if you still have positions or are waiting on the sidelines, gradually pick some promising altcoins that have fallen out of value and build your positions slowly. After such a deep decline, the downward room is limited, but the upward potential might be great
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#金价突破5200美元
As a trader focused on gold trends, today I saw the gold price break through $5200/oz strongly, feeling both excited and cautious. The monthly increase of over $880 is indeed rare, but whether to chase higher or take profits has become the most practical choice at the moment.
My key level observations:
· Short-term support: $5150 (previous breakout level)
· Strong defense level: $5080 (around the 20-day moving average)
· Upward target: $5350-5400 (technical extension level)
Current trading approach (personal real trading share):
I currently hold a small number of long positions, b
View OriginalAs a trader focused on gold trends, today I saw the gold price break through $5200/oz strongly, feeling both excited and cautious. The monthly increase of over $880 is indeed rare, but whether to chase higher or take profits has become the most practical choice at the moment.
My key level observations:
· Short-term support: $5150 (previous breakout level)
· Strong defense level: $5080 (around the 20-day moving average)
· Upward target: $5350-5400 (technical extension level)
Current trading approach (personal real trading share):
I currently hold a small number of long positions, b
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ChristmasEve:
2026 Go Go Go 👊:View More
SOL Bear Market Bottom Analysis
The previous bear market $SOL fell so deeply mainly due to the FTX collapse causing a misjudgment; otherwise, it probably wouldn't have broken through support zone 1.
Although the high point of this bear market is only slightly higher than the high point of the previous bull market, it is unlikely that this bear market will retrace that deeply.
First, in this bear market, SOL won't be misjudged again like during the FTX collapse. Second, Solana has already shed the reputation of being a "downtime chain" through technical upgrades; finally, the Solana ecosystem
The previous bear market $SOL fell so deeply mainly due to the FTX collapse causing a misjudgment; otherwise, it probably wouldn't have broken through support zone 1.
Although the high point of this bear market is only slightly higher than the high point of the previous bull market, it is unlikely that this bear market will retrace that deeply.
First, in this bear market, SOL won't be misjudged again like during the FTX collapse. Second, Solana has already shed the reputation of being a "downtime chain" through technical upgrades; finally, the Solana ecosystem
SOL9.58%
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Elainee:
Hold on tight, we're about to take off 🛫:The few ways to truly make money are probably as follows:
1. The patient ones: Keep most of the year in cash, wait for two or three understandable opportunities, act quickly, and walk away after making a profit.
2. The steady holders: Buy and hold like a bank deposit, leave it untouched for three to five years, and maintain a calm mindset.
3. The wave traders: Only trade one or two familiar stocks long-term, repeatedly buy low and sell high, and can turn costs into negative numbers.
4. The trend followers: Only chase the strongest leaders, be disciplined, react quickly, and have plenty of time
View Original1. The patient ones: Keep most of the year in cash, wait for two or three understandable opportunities, act quickly, and walk away after making a profit.
2. The steady holders: Buy and hold like a bank deposit, leave it untouched for three to five years, and maintain a calm mindset.
3. The wave traders: Only trade one or two familiar stocks long-term, repeatedly buy low and sell high, and can turn costs into negative numbers.
4. The trend followers: Only chase the strongest leaders, be disciplined, react quickly, and have plenty of time
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TheWholeWorldIsFullOfDreams:
Experienced driver, guide me 📈:View More
Is the market crashing? But smart money is taking action!
On-chain data shows that multiple whale addresses have accumulated tens of thousands of coins in the $87,500-$88,000 range, with real money actively buying in.
At the same time, the 200-week moving average (around $86,800) serves as a long-term bull-bear dividing line, providing strong support.
The big players dare to buy heavily at this level, indicating they see it as a "golden pit." Following the direction of big funds usually won't be wrong.#黄金白银再创新高
View OriginalOn-chain data shows that multiple whale addresses have accumulated tens of thousands of coins in the $87,500-$88,000 range, with real money actively buying in.
At the same time, the 200-week moving average (around $86,800) serves as a long-term bull-bear dividing line, providing strong support.
The big players dare to buy heavily at this level, indicating they see it as a "golden pit." Following the direction of big funds usually won't be wrong.#黄金白银再创新高
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ChristmasEve:
New Year Wealth Explosion 🤑:View More
The few ways to truly make money are probably as follows:
1. The patient ones: Keep most of the year in cash, wait for two or three understandable opportunities, act quickly, and walk away after making a profit.
2. The steady holders: Buy and hold like a bank deposit, leave it untouched for three to five years, and maintain a calm mindset.
3. The wave traders: Only trade one or two familiar stocks long-term, repeatedly buy low and sell high, and can turn costs into negative numbers.
4. The trend followers: Only chase the strongest leaders, be disciplined, react quickly, and have plenty of time
View Original1. The patient ones: Keep most of the year in cash, wait for two or three understandable opportunities, act quickly, and walk away after making a profit.
2. The steady holders: Buy and hold like a bank deposit, leave it untouched for three to five years, and maintain a calm mindset.
3. The wave traders: Only trade one or two familiar stocks long-term, repeatedly buy low and sell high, and can turn costs into negative numbers.
4. The trend followers: Only chase the strongest leaders, be disciplined, react quickly, and have plenty of time
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SailorSamba:
Return to the trenches, sit quietly and diligently, if you don't make a sound, you won't surprise anyone. Keep going, let's go. 😡😡😡😡😡😡😡😡😡😡😡:View More
Have you ever thought about a question? The cycle has never been exactly four years; it's about four years, give or take half a year before or after. Three and a half years is also acceptable.
I used to think that the cycle had changed or no longer existed, but that was very naive. The cycle will always be there. Even if it changes, it won't undergo a huge transformation in a short period; it will only change gradually, just like Earth's rotation and revolution—changes that humans cannot perceive.
Last year, I firmly believed that 120,000+ was the top. Judging this doesn't require any extr
I used to think that the cycle had changed or no longer existed, but that was very naive. The cycle will always be there. Even if it changes, it won't undergo a huge transformation in a short period; it will only change gradually, just like Earth's rotation and revolution—changes that humans cannot perceive.
Last year, I firmly believed that 120,000+ was the top. Judging this doesn't require any extr
BTC7.5%
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ChristmasEve:
New Year Wealth Explosion 🤑:View More
#我的2026第一条帖 So far, here are some of the most useful investment tricks and methods I've learned in the crypto world—
1️⃣ When you're about to cut your losses, it's time to add to your position.
2️⃣ When you're hesitating whether to take profits, just take profits.
3️⃣ When you're fantasizing about getting rich and achieving financial freedom, be prepared to reduce your holdings at the highs.
4️⃣ When you like two assets at the same time, it's best to buy both. Never choose one at the limit; if you buy only one, the other will probably perform better.
5️⃣ Don't make any moves when your emotion
View Original1️⃣ When you're about to cut your losses, it's time to add to your position.
2️⃣ When you're hesitating whether to take profits, just take profits.
3️⃣ When you're fantasizing about getting rich and achieving financial freedom, be prepared to reduce your holdings at the highs.
4️⃣ When you like two assets at the same time, it's best to buy both. Never choose one at the limit; if you buy only one, the other will probably perform better.
5️⃣ Don't make any moves when your emotion
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SailorSamba:
Return to the trenches, sit quietly and diligently, if you don't make a sound, you won't surprise anyone. Keep going, let's go. 😡😡😡😡😡😡😡😡😡😡😡:#2026币圈Flag The daily fun now is watching addresses, observing each person's trading style, and tracking the trends of various projects. Although it doesn't make a lot of money, it's quite interesting.
After entering alpha, the trend was pretty much as expected. For projects that have entered contracts, if there are no strong whales or if the whales have no intention to continue, it's basically the end. Watching the trends of each project and fantasizing about retail consensus lifting them is still quite difficult now.
Memes slowly climbed back to 10 million after the top influencer canceled
View OriginalAfter entering alpha, the trend was pretty much as expected. For projects that have entered contracts, if there are no strong whales or if the whales have no intention to continue, it's basically the end. Watching the trends of each project and fantasizing about retail consensus lifting them is still quite difficult now.
Memes slowly climbed back to 10 million after the top influencer canceled
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#我的2026第一条帖
The key to profiting from FOMO emotions in the short term is: timely entry, decisive exit, and effective impulse control.
First, this requires you to identify potential investment opportunities before most people, which demands sharp market insight and precise judgment.
Second, it means you can quickly perceive signs of market overheating and make rapid adjustments to avoid excessive greed, equipped with effective take-profit and stop-loss strategies.
Finally, when market sentiment reaches extremes, you can stay calm and avoid blindly following the crowd, which requires excellent
View OriginalThe key to profiting from FOMO emotions in the short term is: timely entry, decisive exit, and effective impulse control.
First, this requires you to identify potential investment opportunities before most people, which demands sharp market insight and precise judgment.
Second, it means you can quickly perceive signs of market overheating and make rapid adjustments to avoid excessive greed, equipped with effective take-profit and stop-loss strategies.
Finally, when market sentiment reaches extremes, you can stay calm and avoid blindly following the crowd, which requires excellent
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Elainee:
Hold on tight, we're about to take off 🛫:View More
#2026币圈Flag
It is still not recommended to take large positions for long.
My suggestion of small positions for long actually bets on Trump Taco; I believe that once he admits defeat, the coin price will rebound quickly. But it’s also possible that he won’t admit defeat and will continue to make tough talk, especially since the US stock market won’t open until Tuesday this week. Do not put large funds into contracts betting on Trump’s words.
If Trump doesn’t admit defeat, the real dump will be the ETF, which will be based on market reactions after the US stock market opens, with selling pressu
It is still not recommended to take large positions for long.
My suggestion of small positions for long actually bets on Trump Taco; I believe that once he admits defeat, the coin price will rebound quickly. But it’s also possible that he won’t admit defeat and will continue to make tough talk, especially since the US stock market won’t open until Tuesday this week. Do not put large funds into contracts betting on Trump’s words.
If Trump doesn’t admit defeat, the real dump will be the ETF, which will be based on market reactions after the US stock market opens, with selling pressu
TRUMP1.77%
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ChristmasEve:
Experienced driver, guide me 📈:View More
#周末行情分析
The current market consensus is that selling pressure has eased, but liquidity has not fully recovered yet. Therefore, the probability of a sideways correction this weekend seems slightly higher than a short-term violent rebound. However, as market sentiment gradually bottoms out, structural opportunities have already emerged.
I tend to believe that the market will follow a pattern of time-for-space sideways correction. The key focus should be on the trading volume near resistance levels—if mainstream coins can gently increase volume and stabilize at critical positions (for example, B
View OriginalThe current market consensus is that selling pressure has eased, but liquidity has not fully recovered yet. Therefore, the probability of a sideways correction this weekend seems slightly higher than a short-term violent rebound. However, as market sentiment gradually bottoms out, structural opportunities have already emerged.
I tend to believe that the market will follow a pattern of time-for-space sideways correction. The key focus should be on the trading volume near resistance levels—if mainstream coins can gently increase volume and stabilize at critical positions (for example, B
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WinAFull3UAndThenRunAway.
:
Hold on tight, we're about to take off 🛫:View More
#GateFun代币推荐
The recent craze of token issuance on Gate Fun is truly exciting. Among many popular tokens, I am particularly interested in the upcoming Rainbow Horse project. Here are some reasons why this project attracts me:
🌟 Project Highlights Analysis:
1. Community Cultural Resonance - The "Rainbow Horse" IP itself has strong appeal and memorability, making it easy to create cultural resonance within the Chinese community
2. Differentiation in the Sector - Compared to other animal-themed MEME coins, the fairy-tale colors of Rainbow Horse give it a unique edge
3. Launch Timing - Launching
View OriginalThe recent craze of token issuance on Gate Fun is truly exciting. Among many popular tokens, I am particularly interested in the upcoming Rainbow Horse project. Here are some reasons why this project attracts me:
🌟 Project Highlights Analysis:
1. Community Cultural Resonance - The "Rainbow Horse" IP itself has strong appeal and memorability, making it easy to create cultural resonance within the Chinese community
2. Differentiation in the Sector - Compared to other animal-themed MEME coins, the fairy-tale colors of Rainbow Horse give it a unique edge
3. Launch Timing - Launching
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TheWholeWorldIsFullOfDreams:
2026 Go Go Go 👊:View More
#2026币圈Flag
A few thoughts over the weekend.
Market narrative system collapse: from "US dollar peg" to "everyone fighting their own battles"
Over the past decade, the global asset pricing anchor has been clear and unified—the movement of the US dollar almost determines everything: when the dollar rises, risk assets, precious metals, and non-US currencies all come under pressure; when the dollar falls, various assets enter a broad rally; even during occasional safe-haven runs, the fixed script of "dollar + US bonds + gold rising together, risk assets declining" remains unavoidable.
But last
View OriginalA few thoughts over the weekend.
Market narrative system collapse: from "US dollar peg" to "everyone fighting their own battles"
Over the past decade, the global asset pricing anchor has been clear and unified—the movement of the US dollar almost determines everything: when the dollar rises, risk assets, precious metals, and non-US currencies all come under pressure; when the dollar falls, various assets enter a broad rally; even during occasional safe-haven runs, the fixed script of "dollar + US bonds + gold rising together, risk assets declining" remains unavoidable.
But last
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ChristmasEve:
Hold on tight, we're about to take off 🛫:View More
I asked him, "Isn't compound interest very important? The earlier you start investing, the more you can achieve financial freedom, right?"
He shook his head and wrote a number on the paper: 1,000.
"If your principal is only this much, even if you're Buffett, you can only earn 200 bucks a year with all your might."
He crumpled the paper and threw it into the trash can.
"There is a cruel truth about financial management: when you're just starting out, your main income is the biggest leverage.
Don't worry about managing ten million when you only have a thousand. That's anxiety, not financial mana
View OriginalHe shook his head and wrote a number on the paper: 1,000.
"If your principal is only this much, even if you're Buffett, you can only earn 200 bucks a year with all your might."
He crumpled the paper and threw it into the trash can.
"There is a cruel truth about financial management: when you're just starting out, your main income is the biggest leverage.
Don't worry about managing ten million when you only have a thousand. That's anxiety, not financial mana
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ChristmasEve:
New Year Wealth Explosion 🤑:View More
#2026币圈Flag
If the US dollar truly rebounds strongly this year, non-US currencies will inevitably fall across the board, and then there will be a huge risk point—the Japanese Yen.
Currently, against the backdrop of a weakening US dollar, the Yen continues to decline without pause, barely maintained by the Bank of Japan's various mouthpieces.
When the US dollar makes a massive rebound, what will the Yen look like? Will it experience a one-sided slaughter like the Turkish Lira collapse? Probably not.
View OriginalIf the US dollar truly rebounds strongly this year, non-US currencies will inevitably fall across the board, and then there will be a huge risk point—the Japanese Yen.
Currently, against the backdrop of a weakening US dollar, the Yen continues to decline without pause, barely maintained by the Bank of Japan's various mouthpieces.
When the US dollar makes a massive rebound, what will the Yen look like? Will it experience a one-sided slaughter like the Turkish Lira collapse? Probably not.
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Elainee:
2026 Go Go Go 👊:View More
