Bitcoin enters a correction after reaching a historic high of $126,000, with market sentiment turning more conservative; however, several analysts point out that, based on historical cycles and institutional fund flows, the possibility of a new bullish trend in Bitcoin in 2026 has not been ruled out.
(Previous summary: Has the Bitcoin super cycle ended? Fidelity warns: a cold winter may come in 2026, supporting $65,000-$75,000)
(Additional background: Bitcoin keeps falling through $85,000! The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates today, watch out for arbitrage unwinding and further selling)

Table of Contents

• RSI enters oversold zone, historical experience favors bulls
• Institutional funds become medium- to long-term support
• Short-term volatility inevitable, long-term structure still evolving

Since hitting an all-time high above $126,000 in October this year, Bitcoin’s market momentum has gradually cooled, and the price has subsequently undergone a clear correction. After several weeks of correction, Bitcoin is currently fluctuating between $85,000 and $90,000, but overall market sentiment remains cautious, with investors divided on the future direction.

However, the crypto media outlet Decrypt recently compiled opinions from multiple analysts, indicating that although short-term volatility is possible, based on historical data and fundamental conditions, the possibility of a new bull run in Bitcoin in 2026 has not been excluded.

RSI enters oversold zone, historical experience favors bulls

Analysts note that during this correction, Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) once fell below 30, entering the traditional “oversold” zone. Julien Bittel, Head of Macro Research at Global Macro Investor, stated that since 2023, similar situations have occurred five times, and each time Bitcoin eventually rebounded.

Bittel believes that if history repeats itself, Bitcoin could challenge $170,000 within the next three months. He also pointed out that this judgment depends on the market no longer strictly following the “four-year halving cycle” logic.

However, not all analysts are highly optimistic about price projections. Dean Chen, an analyst at Bitunix, pointed out that when RSI enters oversold territory, it usually indicates panic selling and deleveraging in the market. While prices often stabilize and rebound afterward, this does not necessarily mean the same upward trajectory will repeat.

Chen emphasized that to support sustained significant gains in Bitcoin, one must observe overall macro liquidity, monetary policy directions, and changes in global market risk appetite. Relying solely on technical indicators is insufficient for prediction.

Institutional funds become medium- to long-term support

Additionally, fundamental factors are also seen as potential support forces. Matt Hougan, CIO of Bitwise, pointed out that recent market weakness mainly stems from short-term factors, including investors selling early in response to cycle expectations and the residual effects of previous leverage liquidations. He believes these pressures will eventually subside.

More critically, the pace of institutional fund inflows continues to accelerate. Hougan described the development of Bitcoin spot ETFs as “extremely bullish,” noting that large financial institutions and brokerages can now directly allocate related products, which could make 2026 a key year for crypto market capital inflows.

Short-term volatility inevitable, long-term structure still evolving

Overall, after reaching a historic high, Bitcoin has entered a correction phase, and short-term volatility and testing are likely to continue. However, whether viewed from historical cycles, technical indicators, or institutional adoption and ETF development, there are no clear signals of a structural bearish turn.

Most analysts agree that rather than expecting a rapid replication of past surges, investors should focus on whether Bitcoin is gradually entering a mature phase driven by its fundamentals, with volatility gradually converging. Whether 2026 will become the next critical turning point remains to be seen through time and market validation.