The macro liquidity crisis has temporarily eased, the selling trend has declined, and Bitcoin is expected to hit 94,000 USD.

Author: 0xBrooker

For the global financial markets, last week was dubbed “Mine Clearance Week,” as multiple significant data releases, interest rate events, and settlement dates unfolded, gradually alleviating short-term risks in the U.S. stock market.

BTC is still in the deleveraging/repricing phase after the peak of 126,000 USD in October 2025, with a 30+% retracement. The price is repeatedly testing the range of 85,000 to 90,000 USD, and has not yet formed a trend reversal signal.

In terms of market participants' game, long investors continue to reduce their holdings, retail investors continue to withdraw, while DATs and whale groups continue to increase their positions. The contest is still undecided, but the selling trend is slowing down. Macroeconomic liquidity easing has somewhat restored trading enthusiasm, and BTC is expected to challenge $94,000 again in the coming weeks.

Policy, macro-financial and economic data

Multiple significant data releases, interest rate events, and settlement dates in the global financial markets have reinforced the consensus of a “moderate recession in U.S. economic employment + gradual decline in inflation leading to a soft landing path.” U.S. stocks showed a pattern of initial decline followed by an increase throughout the week, indicating that the market has priced in the events that have already occurred, meaning a relief of short-term risks. BTC also followed the movements of U.S. stocks, ultimately rising slightly by 0.53%.

On December 16, the U.S. Department of Labor released non-farm employment data for October and November. Among them, non-farm employment declined by 105,000 in October, while it rebounded by 64,000 in November from a low point, but it still remains weak. The unemployment rate in November rose to 4.6%, the highest point since 2022.

U.S. non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate

On December 18, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the November CPI data, with an annual increase of 2.7%, significantly lower than the expected value of 3.1%. The core CPI also saw an annual increase of 2.6%, which is considerably below the expected value of 3%. Due to government shutdown and insufficient data collection issues, several organizations have indicated that this data may have statistical distortions, and its reproducibility needs to be verified with the subsequent December data. In a speech on Friday, Federal Reserve “number three” John Williams also emphasized this point. This means that a rate cut in January remains a low probability event.

The unemployment rate has reached a new high in several years, while the CPI data has “plummeted”. Although the confidence level is lower due to collection reasons, the market still maintains the judgment that the Federal Reserve is likely to implement two rate cuts of 50 basis points each in 2026.

On December 19, the Bank of Japan unanimously approved an interest rate hike decision, raising the policy rate by 25bp from 0.50% to 0.75%, reaching the highest level in 30 years. At the press conference, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized that future adjustments will be based on data; he also pointed out that the current rate is still below the estimated neutral range, and the real interest rate remains negative.

As the market pricing has been completed and the Bank of Japan's policy statement is “dovish,” the USD/JPY has continued to rebound after hitting a low on Tuesday, approaching the yearly high once again. This has greatly weakened the market's expectations for the impact of a potential interest rate hike in Japan and a rate cut in the US on Carry Trade. Markets have returned to their original logical trajectory.

Affected by the stabilization of the Japanese yen interest rate hike, on Friday, the U.S. market's “Triple Witching Day” (the expiration of stock index options, stock index futures, and individual stock options) saw a nominal value of 7.1 trillion in derivative products with stable performance, and the three major U.S. stock indexes continued to rise, closing at their highest points.

Although concerns about AI spending and profits have not yet been eliminated, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, the Japanese yen's interest rate hikes, and the stabilization of U.S. inflation and employment data have allowed the market to temporarily navigate through turbulent times. While BTC is still hovering around the rebound low, it has also temporarily alleviated the macro-financial risks and liquidity shortages that had pushed it down to the 80000 dollar low point, and there is hope for a rebound.

Traders are starting to anticipate the “Christmas rally” and are waiting for market guidance after the recovery of January data.

cryptocurrency market

As a leading indicator of global macro liquidity, BTC has continued to decline since October, driven on one hand by the sell-off of high β assets and deleveraging in the context of liquidity tightening, and on the other hand by long holders reducing their positions driven by the “cyclical law.”

BTC Daily Chart

Based on on-chain data, the “long hands”' “sell-off” is still ongoing, with nearly 90,000 BTC activated for short positions last week, of which 12,686 coins were directly converted to exchange sell-offs. The total sell-off by long and short hands last week reached 174,100 coins, lower than the previous week, but still maintained at a high level.

Exchange Sell-off Scale Statistics (Weekly)

The exchange has reversed the outflow trend, showing a slight accumulation last week, which is all a pessimistic signal.

However, the exchange's 30-day rolling volume is declining, which means that the most frenzied phase of short-term selling is coming to an end.

Selling is increasing, but funds are flowing out.

Cryptocurrency Market Fund Inflow and Outflow Statistics (Weekly)

Since hitting the bottom on November 21, funds have gradually shown a positive inflow. Last week, they began to flow out, with both the stablecoin channel and the ETF channel experiencing simultaneous outflows. This is the fundamental reason for BTC's second dip and weak rebound, indicating that the sell-off has not significantly diminished, while buying power is being lost. After the macro risks are alleviated, whether buying power can return this week is crucial.

From an on-chain supply perspective, currently 67% of BTC remains profitable, while 33% of the supply is in a loss state, the lowest since the beginning of this bull market.

Including on-chain and ETF channels, retail investors are still withdrawing from the market. The buying power comes from DATs and whale groups, who, as a group with a higher win rate for contrarian operations, continue their actions. Over the past two years of the bull market, they have demonstrated an extremely high win rate, becoming a major force shaping the market.

Last week, the CPI, inflation, and the initial interest rate hike of the yen cleared some uncertainties. This week, whether the ETF channel funds return or continue to flow out may determine the short-term trend of BTC. As for the medium-term trend, whether it will continue to rebound and challenge the short-term investor cost line of $94,000 and recover $103,000, or once again fall and completely dive into a bear market, still depends on further negotiations among trading groups.

Cycle Indicator

According to eMerge Engine, the EMC BTC Cycle Metrics indicator is 0, entering a “downturn phase” (bear market).

(The above content is excerpted and reprinted with authorization from partner PANews, original link | Source: EMC Labs__)

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Disclaimer: This article is for providing market information only. All content and opinions are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice or represent the views and positions of the blockchain. Investors should make their own decisions and trades, and the author and the blockchain will not bear any responsibility for any direct or indirect losses incurred by investors' trades.
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