Crypto giants fiercely debate 2026: Is BTC no longer rising? Is the next big wealth opportunity in the "prediction market"? | MyToken AMA Recap

Opinions clash fiercely—some watch cautiously, while others have already bet on new tracks.

At the start of the new year, Bitcoin repeatedly fluctuated around the $90,000 mark. Is this prelude to a bull market or a sign of waning momentum? Faced with the potentially unpredictable 2026, how should ordinary investors position themselves?

Recently, the well-known blockchain data platform MyToken held an online AMA titled “2026 Gold Rush Guide – Is BTC Truly Breaking Through & How to Layout the Prediction Market and Hot Tracks,” featuring a luxurious lineup of guests. They engaged in in-depth debates on the market trends at the beginning of 2026, potential risks, and popular sectors.

Guest Introductions

Peng Song: Early advocate of Dogecoin, deeply involved in DeFi and Ethereum fork ecosystems. Currently dedicated to building the next-generation decentralized prediction protocol aimed at creating permissionless prediction market infrastructure that allows everyone to monetize knowledge.

Pudat: Senior quantitative researcher and analyst with over 30 years of experience in traditional finance and commodity futures trading. Entered the crypto space in 2018, focusing on quantitative trading strategies.

Crazymath(ShuKang): Head of Japan Market at KTX Exchange, with many years of industry experience. According to ShuKang, KTX is an emerging exchange founded by former top management of leading exchanges, with years of technical accumulation.

Miles: Growth lead at TabiChain, responsible for project ecosystem growth and market strategy.

01 Market Trends: High-level Tug-of-War, Consensus Turning Cautious

The discussion begins with the hottest topic: Bitcoin recently returned to $94,000. Is this a “true breakthrough” or a “dead cat bounce”?

The guests’ views are surprisingly aligned—cautious.

“Not a real breakthrough,” Pudat straightforwardly states. He points out that current prices have not recovered the early December highs, thus not constituting an effective breakout. He predicts that in the next one or two months, Bitcoin is likely to fluctuate between $80,000 and $100,000, “consolidating until you lose interest.”

Crazymath from a data perspective provides evidence: Bitcoin ETF fund inflows have not significantly improved, and the price has not stabilized above key moving averages like the 50-day and 120-day. “At least break through the 120-day moving average, then new opportunities might appear.”

Long-term bullish Peng Song shares a similar view. He believes that in the short term (one month), BTC may stabilize above $90,000, but a rapid surge to new highs of $100,000 still requires time to digest previous “sell pressure.” He also prefers slow growth (annualized 30%-40%) over rapid increases, as it is more conducive to industry innovation and ecological development. He further points out that new narratives like prediction markets could attract fresh capital in the next six months, pushing BTC to break previous highs.

Miles states that trading activity is closely related to overseas markets, especially the US. After a recent pullback from $94,700, he expects Bitcoin to oscillate between $94,000 and $95,000, with strong support below and a low probability of falling below $80,000 in the short term.

02 Warning: In 2026, Black Swans Might Be the Main Theme

When the topic shifts to macro risks in 2026, the atmosphere becomes more serious. Several guests warn that this year might require more caution.

“Exchange failures have always been a looming sword,” Peng Song bluntly states. Geopolitical issues and liquidity problems could be triggers. Pudat’s warning is more specific: the collapse of second- and third-tier exchanges, political turmoil after US midterm elections, and global crypto taxation could all become market “black swans.” 2026 is expected to be a “depressing” year with few bright spots in the global financial markets.

Crazymath even views the entire 2026 as a potential risk: “The US Treasury bond pile-up feels like it’s about to spiral out of control.” He warns that once systemic risks erupt, cryptocurrencies—being high-risk assets—will be hit hardest. He advises retail investors to hold sufficient cash and adopt cautious defenses.

Miles places hope on monetary policy, believing only if the Federal Reserve restarts QE (quantitative easing) can the market gain real upward momentum. He also notes that trust in altcoins remains low.

Amidst these warnings, Peng Song highlights a “bright spot”—prediction markets. He believes that whether it’s the World Cup, US elections, or geopolitical conflicts, a series of major events could serve as excellent scenarios for prediction markets to break out of their niche and attract traditional capital.

03 Debate: Prediction Markets—Cognitive Monetization or High-Level Casino?

Prediction markets are undoubtedly the most heated topic in this discussion. Are they the next disruptive track or just another well-packaged “casino”?

Peng Song is a firm “reformer.” He is dissatisfied with current mainstream prediction platforms (like PolyMarket), criticizing their centralized review mechanisms for limiting creativity. He envisions a decentralized protocol where anyone can create prediction markets based on their own cognition.

“This is not just gambling; it’s ‘cognitive monetization,’” he describes. Experts can initiate predictions in familiar fields (such as sports, technology, politics), ensuring fairness through sophisticated on-chain governance and dispute resolution, thus turning knowledge into profits.

This idea immediately draws skepticism from Pudat. “That’s still an experimental concept,” he sharply points out. The judgment of real-world events heavily depends on “oracles,” and the centralized nature of oracles makes them highly susceptible to manipulation.

He prefers his own practice—prediction games based on blockchain hashes and other truly random numbers—“that’s real fairness.”

Crazymath and Miles represent more pragmatic user perspectives. Crazymath admits he has played similar on-chain prediction games but doubted their neutrality after experiencing a series of unlikely losses. He suggests that ordinary users can use these as a “barometer” for event trends or follow large bets with small positions, but not as main investments.

Miles offers a “player strategy”: if you want to boost trading volume on platforms like PolyMarket to potentially earn airdrops, follow professional analysts in sports betting—this is a “strategy that won’t lose money.”

Despite differing views on the form, all four guests agree that prediction markets are currently one of the few narratives capable of attracting new funds and users. The divergence lies in where they will ultimately go.

04 Strategy: Return to Fundamentals, Find Certainty in Uncertainty

In the face of a potentially turbulent 2026, how should ordinary people position themselves? The guests’ advice returns to traditional and rational approaches.

“Dollar-cost averaging into Bitcoin, the simplest and most effective,” Crazymath’s suggestion reflects the basic consensus. Pudat also states that in the absence of better opportunities, he will continue holding spot Bitcoin.

Regarding the endless emergence of altcoins and popular “narrative tracks,” Pudat coolly remarks: “All stories eventually turn into accidents.” He reminds retail investors that, like players in a casino playing slot machines, facing project teams that can see your chips, the odds are slim.

Peng Song offers another path: give up short-term trading and shift toward long-term “cognitive building.” Whether through content creation to accumulate influence or building communities in vertical fields using prediction tools, these are ways to prepare capital that far exceeds money for the next cycle.

Crazymath adds a short-term tip: closely monitor new Alpha tokens launched by top exchanges, observe data like funding rates to catch the movements of short-term big players, but act quickly—buy and sell fast to avoid being caught in a trap.

05 Community Interaction: Facing the Soul-Searching Question—What Should We Buy in 2026?

After the heated debate, the AMA moves into an active community Q&A session.

When asked which is more promising among BTC, ETH, SOL, and BNB, Pudat’s reply is concise and sharp: “BNB is gone (referring to its certainty), Ethereum is a reject, Solana is a lunatic. BNB can be pulled at will, it has intrinsic value.”

Asked whether BTC will outperform gold and silver in 2026, Peng Song is cautious: “Long-term, I believe BTC will outperform, but in 2026, macro turbulence might put short-term pressure on it, and its performance may not surpass gold and silver.”

This perhaps also hints at the investment mindset for 2026: in a market full of uncertainty, seeking assets with the highest certainty and the best understanding might be the most reliable compass to navigate through the fog.

The crypto market’s stories are always full of disagreements and surprises, and the true “gold rush guide” may lie in the intense clash of viewpoints and independent thinking after each debate.

Key Takeaways (Summary)

1. Market Consensus: High-level oscillation does not equal a true breakthrough; caution remains the main theme.

Bitcoin around $90,000 is more of a high-level consolidation than an effective breakout. In the short term, it is likely to stay within the $80,000–$100,000 range.

ETF inflows, key moving averages, and trading activity have not confirmed a “new bull market.”

Slow growth is preferable to rapid surges; the market needs time to digest previous sell-offs and sentiment.

2. 2026 Outlook: Risks outweigh opportunities; black swans cannot be ignored.

Potential risks include:

• Collapse of second- and third-tier exchanges

• Geopolitical and regulatory/taxation uncertainties

• US debt and systemic macro financial risks

As a high-risk asset, cryptocurrencies will be hit hardest if systemic risks erupt.

The real incremental momentum still heavily depends on a shift in Federal Reserve monetary policy (QE).

3. New Narrative Focus: Prediction markets are among the few “incremental tracks” being seriously discussed.

Consensus: Prediction markets might be one of the few tracks capable of attracting new funds and users.

Disagreement:

• Bulls: Prediction markets are “cognitive monetization” with potential to become next-generation infrastructure.

• Skeptics: Oracle and event adjudication are highly centralized, raising fairness and scalability concerns, making it more like a “high-level casino.”

Current Positioning

Prediction markets are still in early exploration stages. Core issues like decentralization trust and adjudication efficiency need to be addressed before they can evolve from “niche tracks” to “infrastructure-level applications.” In the short term, they are mostly conceptual narratives; long-term value depends on technological implementation and balancing regulatory boundaries.