- The $116 trillion benchmarks
- The momentum outliner
Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity’s director of global macro, has questioned whether Bitcoin’s bounce to $95,000 is a return to trend or a “countertrend” trap
The executive has warned that the “huge outlier” status of Bitcoin’s momentum curve may signal that further rebalancing is required before a true bottom is established.
In a Friday market update, Timmer compared the underwhelming performance of the world’s largest digital asset to the robust performance of gold. The latter continues to set new highs as a reliable hedge against global monetary expansion.
The $116 trillion benchmarks
Timmer’s analysis begins with the “ever-expanding” global money supply, which currently sits at a staggering $116.5 trillion and is growing at an annualized rate of 11.4%.
According to the Fidelity executive, gold is doing exactly what it is designed to do in this environment: “Gold has continued to perform extremely well amid this evolving global world order,” Timmer noted
However, the signal for Bitcoin is far less clear. The cryptocurrency corrected sharply and then rallied from $80,000 to the $95,000 range.
“It’s hard to know whether the correction is over and the uptrend is resuming, or whether the rally from $80k to $95k is a countertrend bounce,” Timmer wrote.
Timmer pointed to two critical liquidity metrics that suggest institutional exhaustion. First, futures interest has “dropped substantially,” meaning that leverage is leaving the system. Moreover, inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs have cooled substantially.
The momentum outliner
Perhaps the most bearish note in Timmer’s assessment is his view of Bitcoin’s “momentum curve.” He described the asset’s recent price velocity as a “huge outlier” compared to historical norms and other asset classes.
“Perhaps some rebalancing is in order here as well,” Timmer concluded
Timmer’s analysis offers a sobering reality check for some bulls who believe that the worst is already over.
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
Bitcoin 8-Hour Average Funding Rate Turns Negative at -0.01%
Gate News message, April 22 — According to Coinglass data, Bitcoin's 8-hour average funding rate across the network currently stands at -0.01%, indicating a slight bearish sentiment among futures traders.
Among major exchanges, funding rates vary: one exchange at -0.0007%, another at -0.0033%, a th
GateNews6h ago
BTC 24H up 5.01%, current price 79399.3 USDT
Gate News bot message, Gate market data shows, BTC has risen 5.01% in the last 24 hours, current price is 79399.3 USDT.
CryptoRadar7h ago
MicroStrategy Could Drive Bitcoin to $10M If It Accumulates 7.5% Supply, Saylor Says
MicroStrategy aims for 7.5% of Bitcoin supply, implying $10M per BTC; as of Apr 19 it held 815,061 BTC (~3.88%) for $61.56B, needing ~3.62% more to target saturation in Saylor’s long‑term accumulation plan.
Abstract: MicroStrategy seeks to accumulate roughly 7.5% of Bitcoin supply, a threshold Saylor suggests could push BTC to about $10 million and slow purchases thereafter. By April 19 it owned 815,061 BTC (≈3.88% of supply) for $61.56B and would require about 3.62 percentage points more to reach the target, indicating a approaching saturation of its long-run accumulation strategy.
GateNews8h ago
Bitcoin Liquidation Levels: $28.21B Long Liquidations at $74,951, $16.13B Short Liquidations at $82,741
Gate News message, April 22 — According to Coinglass data, if Bitcoin falls below $74,951, cumulative long liquidations across major centralized exchanges would reach $28.21 billion.
Conversely, if BTC breaks above $82,741, cumulative short liquidations across major CEXs would reach $16.13 billion.
GateNews8h ago
Bitcoin and Ethereum Spot ETFs Record Consecutive Net Inflows; BTC ETFs Reach $99.08B in Assets
Abstract: Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs posted net inflows on Apr 21, extending multi-day streaks. BTC inflows were led by BlackRock’s IBIT and Grayscale, with GBTC outflows; ETH inflows were led by ETHA, with ETHE outflows.
Summary: Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs posted Apr 21 inflows, extending gains; BTC led by IBIT and Grayscale with GBTC outflows, NAV $99.08B (6.54%). ETH inflows topped by ETHA, ETHE outflows; NAV $13.66B, inflows $12.05B.
GateNews9h ago
Expert Observes a Bullish 90-Day Bitcoin Pattern Repeating, BTC Could Hit $145,000 ATH Target
Expert observes a bullish 90-day Bitcoin pattern repeating.
He declares accumulation phase complete and expects manipulation phase to start.
BTC could hit $145,000 ATH target in the final distribution phase.
The crypto market has been moving in an upwards direction after weeks of
CryptoNewsLand9h ago
