2028 U.S. election forecast: Vice President approval hits a new low, and Vance still maintains a slim lead

With about two and a half years until the 2028 U.S. presidential election, crypto prediction markets have opened early and are seeing staggering trading volumes. Although Vice President JD Vance’s net approval rating has fallen by 21 percentage points over the past 15 months—hitting a modern polling-era record low for the start of a vice president’s term—both Polymarket and Kalshi, the two major prediction platforms, still show him holding onto first place in the 2028 U.S. presidential election by a narrow margin.

Approval rating free-falls: Vance drops to a new modern low for a vice president

CNN data analyst Harry Enten recently noted that Vance’s net approval rating, as of early April 2026, has fallen to -18. As indicated by a late March CNN/SSRS poll, 37% approve and 62% disapprove; a Civiqs survey on April 8 also showed 37% favorability corresponding to 57% disfavor. Compared with the small positive reading when he took office in January 2025, the drop totals 21 percentage points.

Enten pointed out that this is the lowest net approval rating recorded in modern polling for the early period of any vice president’s term. Worth noting: during their terms, former vice presidents Dan Quayle and Dick Cheney both saw disapproval rates that came close to 60%, but that may not have been at the same point in their respective terms; this comparison is mainly used as a trend signal rather than a definitive historical judgment.

The decline in approval can be traced back to multiple macro pressures: after the U.S. military carried out airstrikes on Iranian targets, gasoline prices climbed to more than $4 per gallon; only 27% of the public approve of the government’s inflation management; tariff policies and intensifying supply-chain friction have heightened perceived cost-of-living burdens; and in 2024, measurable backsliding appeared among Latino voters, younger voters, and independent voters who had shifted to support the Trump–Vance ticket.

Prediction market data: $521.6 million bet on the 2028 U.S. election on Polymarket

(Source: Polymarket)

Even with approval dropping to a historic low, Vance still holds the top spot in 2028 win odds on both major platforms, though his advantage has narrowed dramatically compared with 15 months ago. Polymarket’s 2028 U.S. election market has a total trading volume of $521.6 million, while Kalshi’s 2028 election market has a total trading volume of about $28.9 million.

Win odds for the main candidates on the two platforms (April 13, 2026)

JD Vance (Vice President): Polymarket 18.9% ｜ Kalshi 21%

Gavin Newsom (Governor of California): Polymarket 16.9% ｜ Kalshi 17%

Marco Rubio (Senator): Polymarket 9.5% ｜ Kalshi 13%

AOC (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez): Polymarket 5.5% ｜ Kalshi 6.4%

Donald Trump (incumbent president): Kalshi 2.6%

Non-traditional candidates: LeBron James and Kim Kardashian each at 1%, accounting for trading volumes of $46.40 million and $32.80 million, respectively—reflecting the fact that some traders are making purely speculative setups

Outlook on the political landscape: the gap is narrowing, but the election is still far off

Vance’s approval rating trend lines up closely with Trump’s own—Trump, in recent polling across multiple outlets including CNN, Reuters/Ipsos, and the University of Massachusetts, has already slid into the low-to-mid 30% range, making it clear that public opinion for the governing party overall is under pressure.

Analysts caution that polling data itself comes with a margin of error, and public sentiment can change quickly. If an Iran ceasefire agreement remains solid, oil prices fall, or anxiety about inflation eases, it’s possible for approval trends to stabilize again. With about two and a half years left until the 2028 election and prediction markets already open, the competitive landscape remains open—Vance currently stays ahead on both platforms, but his advantage is shrinking day by day.

Frequently asked questions

Why is JD Vance’s approval rating described as a “historic low for a vice president”?

Based on an analysis by CNN data analyst Harry Enten, Vance’s net approval rating (-18) recorded at the start of his term is the lowest among vice presidents with modern records. Since he took office in January 2025, it has fallen by 21 percentage points, mainly due to the combined impact of rising gasoline prices, dissatisfaction with inflation, and tariff policy.

What does the 2028 U.S. election payout odds in prediction markets mean?

Prediction markets reflect traders’ probability judgments based on real money, not a direct conversion of poll results. Polymarket’s 2028 election market has accumulated a trading volume of $521.6 million, indicating some market depth, but with two and a half years still left until the election, uncertainty in early positioning is extremely high. Rapid changes in odds are the norm.

Does Gavin Newsom really have a chance to surpass Vance?

Right now, Newsom is closely trailing Vance, at 16.9% on Polymarket and 17% on Kalshi; the gap between the two platforms is also steadily shrinking. He has the highest odds among Democratic candidates, and as pressure on the governing party’s public opinion intensifies, the political environment may shift further toward challengers. However, prediction-market odds can be reshuffled at any time due to sudden political events.