Big data is coming this Thursday: whether Bitcoin can hold $67k depends on the Fed’s signals

Gate News message: This week, the U.S. will release four key macroeconomic data sets in quick succession, including the FOMC meeting minutes, PCE inflation, the final GDP reading, and CPI data. These signals will directly determine whether Bitcoin can hold the $67k level and will also decide the direction of the market in April.

Currently, Bitcoin is trading sideways around $69k, down about 23% year-to-date, with market sentiment still at a low level. At the same time, its correlation with the S&P 500 index has risen to 0.94, indicating that it has become a typical high-beta macro asset—highly sensitive to rate expectations and changes in inflation.

The FOMC meeting minutes released on Wednesday will first set the tone for market expectations. If they convey hawkish signals—for example, by emphasizing sticky inflation or delaying the rate-cut timeline—the U.S. dollar and real yields could strengthen, which would suppress the performance of risk assets. Conversely, if they acknowledge economic slowdown or that any shocks are only temporary, Bitcoin could rebound in the short term and test levels above $70k.

Thursday’s core PCE data is especially crucial. The market expects year-over-year growth of about 3.0%. If the data comes in higher than 3.1%, it will reinforce the view that “rates stay high for longer.” If it comes in below expectations, it may ease tightening pressures and provide upside momentum for Bitcoin. If the final GDP reading released the same day continues to weaken, or if it boosts expectations for easing, it could support crypto assets.

Friday’s CPI data is seen as the most important variable this week. The market expects year-over-year growth of 3.3%, mainly driven by energy prices. The key is core CPI performance: if it stays below 0.3%, the market may look through the energy shock; but if it rises to 0.4% or higher, rate-cut expectations will be further pushed back, which could weigh on Bitcoin and pull it back into the $65k area.

In addition, institutional capital is still providing some support. In March, spot ETFs absorbed roughly 50k Bitcoin, but selling by large holders has kept overall demand relatively weak. With long-versus-short positioning battles layered on top of macro variables, this week is a critical time window.