Gate News, on April 1, Bitcoin fell 23.8% in the first quarter of 2026, marking the worst first-quarter performance since 2018. By comparison, Bitcoin declined 50% in the first quarter of 2018. Combined with a 23% drop in the fourth quarter of 2025, Bitcoin has now fallen about 41.6% over the past six months.
A CEX research director, Andri Fauzan Adziima, said the Q1 decline was mainly driven by outflows from Bitcoin spot ETF fund flows, alongside persistently elevated inflation, a cautious stance from the Federal Reserve, and a broader market risk-off sentiment. In Q1, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded net outflows of $496.5 million, with $1.8 billion leaving in the first two months; inflows of $1.32 billion in March partially offset the earlier outflows.
Despite this, analysts believe long-term conviction in Bitcoin has not wavered. Min Jung, a researcher at Presto Research, said: “There is virtually no evidence that Bitcoin’s long-term conviction has undergone a structural shift. Institutional participation and adoption trends remain intact, suggesting that this decline is more cyclical than driven by fundamentals.” She noted that the premise for a trend reversal in the second quarter is greater certainty in the macro environment, especially regarding the situation in the Middle East.
Nick Ruck, research director at LVRG, added: “To reverse the trend in the second quarter, we need ETF capital to return to net inflows, clear progress on U.S. crypto-friendly regulations, and a shift in monetary conditions toward a more accommodative direction.”
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