Bitcoin (BTC) rose back above $71,000 during the early Asian trading hours on Wednesday after Trump’s administration offered a 15-point plan to Iran to end the war, sparking short-term optimism across risk assets.
Key takeaways:
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Bitcoin bounces 4% to $71,500 after President Trump sent Iran a 15-point proposal aimed at ending the war.
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Bitcoin faces stiff resistance above $72,000.
Bitcoin jumps 4% on ceasefire hopes
Data from TradingView showed BTC price rose as much as 4% to an intraday high of $71,300 from Tuesday’s low of $68,890, recouping all the losses incurred the day prior.
_BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/_TradingView
The price reacted to news that the US, through the primary intermediary Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir (Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff), has sent Iran a 15-point plan aimed at ending the war.
The key elements of the plan include: a temporary ceasefire with calls on Iran to dismantle or severely limit its nuclear program, suspend its ballistic-missile work, and the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz for safe maritime traffic.
Source: X/The Kobeissi Letter
Meanwhile, Iran continues to deny any ongoing talks as Trump delayed his self-imposed deadline for Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Following the news, WTI crude oil dropped 5.75% to $87 per barrel, while Brent crude shed 6% to trade at $98.
Oil prices table. Source: Oil Price.com
Gold extended yesterday’s gains, now up 2.53% on the day to trade at $4,561 at the time of writing.
This move eases inflation fears tied to disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, positively impacting risk assets, including Bitcoin.
Analysts noted the swift repricing, with Coinlore saying that Bitcoin is now acting as a “real-time sentiment instrument for global risk.”
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr said that BTC will “likely remain headline-driven” until the US and Iran send a “public de-escalation signal.”
Bitcoin price faces “rough times ahead”
Despite the rebound, BTC’s upside appears to be capped at $72,000, where the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) and the upper trend line of a symmetrical triangle converge.
A break above $72,000 would confirm a bullish breakout from the triangle, toward the measured target at $92,400, 30% above the current price.
BTC/USD daily chart._ Cointelegraph/_TradingView
Glassnode’s cost-basis distribution heatmap reveals concentrated supply and resistance between $72,000 and $74,000, where investors acquired roughly 380,000 BTC over the last 30 days. This indicates that sellers could aggressively defend this zone.
Bitcoin cost basis distribution heatmap. Source: Glassnode
On the downside, a dense accumulation cluster sits around $65,000, where investors previously acquired 160,000 BTC.
This level coincides with the lower trend line of the symmetrical triangle, which, if lost, could trigger the next leg lower toward the bearish target of the triangle at $52,500.
Meanwhile, Capriole Investment’s Bitcoin Macro index has dropped to -1.37, levels seen at the depth of previous bear cycles.
The chart below shows that the metric historically spends a year at or below these valuations before recovering.
“Bitcoin Macro index is in the value zone,” Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards said in an X post on Wednesday, adding:
“In all prior instances, price went lower into deeper value first before recovering, suggesting we may have more rough times ahead first.”
Bitcoin Macro Index. Source: Capriole Investments
As Cointelegraph reported, traders warn of a second bear flag breakdown that could clear the path for another sell-off below $50,000.
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