Brazil's B3 exchange to offer bitcoin-linked 'event contracts' for the ultra-rich

Brazil’s main stock exchange B3 will begin offering six new derivatives contracts on April 27 that allow investors to bet on the likelihood of future events, ranging from the price of bitcoin to movements in the dollar and Ibovespa index.

The instruments, called Event Contracts, operate on a framework similar to prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket. Prices range up to 100 reals ($19), with each contract’s price reflecting the market’s estimated probability of an outcome.

B3’s contracts are regulated by Brazil’s securities authority (CVM) and designed for professional investors, the exchange said.

The six contracts cover mini futures and spot prices for the Ibovespa index, the U.S. dollar, and bitcoin. They are structured with fixed payouts and known risks from the outset, like crypto price prediction markets on Kalshi and Polymarket.

Traders won’t take delivery of the underlying assets, and settlement is instead cash-based. For now, only investors with more than 10 million reals ($1.9 million) in assets or CVM certification can trade the new products.

B3’s vice president of Products and Clients, Luiz Masagão, said the launch is part of a broader push to modernize derivatives trading in Brazil.

The exchange already offers contracts tied to central bank decisions in several countries and has watched the growth of predictive platforms abroad closely, Masagão added.

The exchange late last year revealed it’s working on its own tokenization platform and stablecoin, both expected to be launched this year.

B3’s launch marks the first federally regulated prediction market in Brazil, though it enters an increasingly crowded field. Platforms like Prévias and Palpitada have been operating domestically in a regulatory gray area, while U.S.-based Kalshi recently partnered with XP International, Brazil’s largest brokerage, to offer event contracts tied to Brazilian economic outcomes.

The move also comes amid a global prediction market boom. Notional volume is now nearing $160 billion, according to a Dune dashboard, while unique users have crossed the 3 million mark.

Polymarket and Kalshi dominate the space globally, accounting for most of the notional volume. Intercontinental Exchange, the owner of the New York Stock Exchange, recently doubled down on Polymarket and bringing its total commitment to nearly $2 billion.

Still, the regulatory landscape remains unsettled on both sides of the equator. In Brazil, legal experts say it’s unclear whether oversight of prediction markets should ultimately fall to the CVM, the Central Bank, or the Ministry of Finance.