Exodus CEO: Retail investors at a nine-year low, institutions quietly enjoy the crypto bull market

Cryptocurrency wallet company Exodus CEO JP Richardson publicly said on Sunday that this year’s crypto market is undergoing a historic structural shift: financial institutions are “accelerating” their pace of entering the crypto market, while retail investors are largely absent. He said plainly: “This may be the first cycle in crypto history where institutional investors are in a bull market, while retail investors have no idea.” Several market analysts and on-chain data later confirmed this pattern.

Richardson’s core argument: institutions are speeding up their entry, while retail is broadly absent

Richardson didn’t just share an opinion—he also listed a series of specific events to support his case:

Key events driving institutional acceleration into 2026

Stablecoin market cap hits an all-time high: Institutional funds flow into the crypto market in large volumes via stablecoins, pushing market cap above the previous record peak

Morgan Stanley launches a Bitcoin (BTC) ETF: Opens a new channel for Bitcoin allocation by traditional wealth management institutions

Charles Schwab sets up a spot Bitcoin watchlist: One of the largest retail brokers in the U.S. officially accepts demand for spot Bitcoin investing

Franklin Templeton launches a crypto division: A globally top-tier asset management firm officially moves into crypto-related business

Freddie Mac accepts Bitcoin-collateralized loans: The largest U.S. mortgage finance and guarantee institution includes BTC within the category of eligible collateral

Richardson directly compared this round to past cycles: “In 2018 and 2022, institutional investors withdrew along with retail investors. This time, they accelerated their entry.” This shift in pattern means the crypto market is moving away from emotionally driven, retail-led cycles toward a more robust, institution-dominated market with deeper liquidity.

The root cause of retail absence: the cost-of-living crisis

On Sunday, crypto analyst and founder of MN Fund Michaël van de Poppe raised similar points on X, and directly identified the core reason retail is absent—rising inflation and the cost-of-living crisis are directly limiting ordinary investors’ ability to inject capital.

“Almost everyone finds it hard to pay bills every month,” he wrote. “So this cycle won’t be a retail cycle—it’ll be an institutional cycle, and it will last longer.”

This analysis points to a structural contradiction that is rarely discussed: in traditional bull market cycles, retail’s FOMO sentiment is a key fuel driving asset prices to surge higher. But when retail can’t get in due to financial pressure, that driving force is completely missing.

Data confirms it: Binance retail activity drops to a nine-year low

CryptoQuant analyst “Darkfost” provided quantitative support for the above view using on-chain data. He noted that earlier this month, the amount of capital flowing into Binance accounts holding less than 1 BTC fell to a historic low, and overall retail activity dropped to the lowest level in nine years.

“Retail investors are clearly absent from the market,” he concluded. Darkfost also pointed out that some retail investors may have shifted their funds to the stock and commodities markets, since those traditional markets recorded similarly strong performance in the same period.

Near-term sentiment is still fragile, but the medium-term outlook is relatively optimistic

CoinEx exchange chief analyst Jeff Ko took a cautious stance on near-term price action, saying market sentiment is “still fragile, and heavily influenced by macroeconomic factors—especially oil, the U.S. dollar, and inflation expectations.”

He believes the current pressure comes more from macro risk premia rather than a structural deterioration in crypto demand itself, and expressed a relatively optimistic view of the medium-term outlook: “Given the basic supply-and-demand relationship, I don’t think oil prices will stay this high forever.”

Frequently asked questions

Why does the CEO of Exodus believe this is the first bull market in crypto history where institutions have it all to themselves?

JP Richardson pointed out that in the bear markets of 2018 and 2022, both institutions and retail withdrew together; while in 2026 the situation is completely opposite—institutions accelerate their entry, while retail is broadly absent at scale due to the cost-of-living crisis, forming a pattern never seen before in crypto history.

Why are retail investors absent in this cycle?

Multiple analysts point to inflation and the cost-of-living crisis: ordinary investors face monthly spending pressure, leaving much less surplus capital available to invest in crypto assets. That causes retail activity to fall to a nine-year low, and some of the funds have already shifted to stock and commodities markets showing strong performance.

Does retail’s absence mean this bull market can’t last?

MN Fund founder Michaël van de Poppe believes that a cycle led by institutions rather than driven by retail may actually last longer, because institutions’ entry logic is more grounded in fundamentals. Although near-term sentiment is still fragile, mainstream analysts believe there hasn’t been a structural deterioration in the medium-term fundamentals.