- Fed minutes showed officials debating both possible rate cuts and possible hikes, with inflation and the Iran war pulling policy in opposite directions.
- Bitcoin is hovering near $71,000, and analysts are split between a recovery if risk appetite improves and another setback if macro pressure returns.
The Federal Reserve’s latest minutes did not give markets a clean signal. Some officials said rate cuts could still be needed later this year if growth weakens. Others argued that upward adjustments might become necessary if inflation stays above target, especially if higher energy costs keep feeding through the economy.
The Fed left rates unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% in March, while its projections still pointed to a median year-end policy rate of 3.4%, which broadly implies one cut this year rather than a fast easing cycle.
Rates, oil and the return of macro
That matters for Bitcoin because the token is trading more like a macro-sensitive asset than a clean safe haven. It rose with the broader relief move after the two-week U.S.-Iran ceasefire, but the truce already looks fragile and oil remains well above prewar levels. Traders now price only about a one-in-four chance of a Fed cut by year-end, after briefly betting more aggressively on easing.
The $75,000 question
For the next four weeks, the near-term bullish case is straightforward. If the ceasefire holds, oil stays contained and softer inflation data rebuilds confidence in future Fed cuts, Bitcoin could extend higher from the current $71,000 area.
That case also gets support from renewed institutional demand, with spot Bitcoin ETFs taking in about $471 million on April 6, the strongest daily inflow since late February. Longer-term bulls such as Bernstein have argued Bitcoin may already have found a floor as institutional ownership reshapes the market.
The bearish case is less complicated, honestly. If the Iran ceasefire breaks down, oil climbs again and rate-cut hopes fade, Bitcoin could lose momentum quickly. More cautious analysts are watching whether it can reclaim $75,000 decisively. Without that, the market still looks vulnerable to another pullback rather than a clean breakout.
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
Bitcoin's BIP-361 Quantum Fix Splits Community Over Address Freezing
A proposed Bitcoin improvement to address quantum vulnerability has divided the cryptocurrency community over whether to freeze legacy addresses, including those attributed to Satoshi Nakamoto. The BIP-361 proposal, which went live on April 14, has sparked debate between prominent figures including
CryptoFrontier24m ago
Zonda Exchange Discloses 4,500 BTC Cold Wallet as Private Keys Remain Untransferred
Zonda, a Polish crypto exchange, revealed a cold wallet with 4,503 BTC amid a withdrawal crisis. CEO Przemysław Kral addressed fund misappropriation allegations and promised legal action against false claims, emphasizing that private keys were never transferred due to the former CEO's disappearance.
GateNews50m ago
Ben McKenzie Slams Bitcoin on Jon Stewart Show
Actor Ben McKenzie appeared on The Weekly Show with Jon Stewart on Aug. 14 in a segment titled "The Other Side of Bitcoin: Crypto Corruption," where he delivered a sharp critique of Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency industry. McKenzie, known for his film and television work, has become a
CryptoFrontier1h ago
BTC edges up 0.46% in 15 minutes: institutional fund outflows and macro risk-off sentiment in sync drove the move
From 15:00 to 15:15 (UTC) on 2026-04-16, BTC logged a +0.46% return within 15 minutes. The price fluctuated in a range of 73,939.7 to 74,440.0 USDT, with an amplitude of 0.68%. During this time window, market attention increased, short-term volatility intensified, and fund-flow characteristics changed noticeably.
The main driver of this deviation is the continued outflow of large amounts of capital from exchanges. According to on-chain data, in the past 24 hours the net flow was -14,408.84 BTC, mainly concentrated in large transfer ranges of more than $1 million (especially>$10M net outflow -12,987.03 BTC). This shows that institutions and large holders actively reduced their BTC holdings on exchanges, and short-term selling pressure was significantly lowered. Against the backdrop of persistently weak liquidity, with order book depth remaining at a low level for a long time, the price has become more sensitive to medium-sized buy orders—amplifying the impact of even modest inflows on spot market price action.
In addition, macro conditions changed in parallel and produced a synchronized effect: easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East boosted overall market sentiment. International gold prices rose, global equity markets hit new highs, and the market re-evaluated the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates within the year, further increasing investor attention to safe-haven assets (including BTC). At the same time, on-chain data indicates that the “whale” trading activity during this phase is at an annual low (>$1M transfers fell to 1,485 transactions). With heavy market wait-and-see sentiment and limited short-term supply, BTC’s responsiveness to sudden buy-side capital was further enhanced.
Investors should be reminded that current market liquidity is still fragile. Insufficient order book depth increases the market’s sensitivity to large capital movements, and short-term volatility may intensify. Going forward, focus on further shifts in on-chain large-fund flows, changes in price action as it breaks through support or resistance regions, and the risks and opportunities brought by related macro policies and geopolitical developments. Please continue to track key data and stay alert to any sudden shocks during the period of abnormal moves.
GateNews1h ago
Bitcoin Transactions Face 70-Page Tax Filing Burden Annually
According to Nicholas Anthony of the Cato Institute's Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives, spending Bitcoin on everyday purchases creates an unexpected tax compliance nightmare. The IRS treats Bitcoin as property, not currency, meaning every transaction—even a $5 coffee
CryptoFrontier2h ago
Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana ETFs Record Positive Net Inflows on April 16
Gate News message, according to the April 16 update, Bitcoin ETFs recorded a 1-day net inflow of +2,855 BTC (+$209.95M) and a 7-day net inflow of +11,849 BTC (+$871.52M). Ethereum ETFs showed a 1-day net inflow of +15,477 ETH (+$35.44M) and a 7-day net inflow of +90,366 ETH (+$206.94M). Solana ETFs
GateNews2h ago
