CryptoQuantitative analyst PlanB, creator of the Bitcoin prediction model “S2F (Stock-to-Flow Ratio),” gained fame for predicting that Bitcoin would reach $100,000 by the end of 2021. However, he was later criticized for inaccurate forecasts. Now, he has once again shocked the market with a Bitcoin price outlook, believing that during the current market cycle from 2024 to 2028, the average price of Bitcoin could reach $500,000.
This prediction comes from PlanB’s latest release of the S2F model. Although Bitcoin’s recent price has been highly volatile and is still hovering around $67,000, based on the historical range associated with the model, PlanB considers this an excellent time to buy Bitcoin.
Bitcoin Price Outlook. Source: PlanB
What is the S2F Model?
The “S2F model” quantifies an asset’s scarcity by dividing its “stock (supply)” by its “flow (annual production),” serving as a technical indicator to predict price trends. Since Bitcoin undergoes a halving of block rewards every four years, the new supply is halved accordingly. According to the S2F logic, when the supply growth rate continues to decline and scarcity increases, it will likely generate strong upward momentum for the price.
In the latest chart, the S2F forecast curve shows a significant jump after the 2024 halving, pointing toward a price range of around $500,000.
A Deep Dive into PlanB’s Latest Outlook, Summarized into Three Core Points:
1. Past predictions have been repeatedly accurate: PlanB emphasizes that the S2F model has provided valuable price ranges during multiple previous cycles. He notes that when he started buying Bitcoin in 2015, the price was about $400; in 2019, when Bitcoin fell below $4,000, the model predicted a potential rise to $55,000, which was later confirmed as the market indeed surpassed that target.
2. The market is not overheated: From a technical perspective, PlanB also believes Bitcoin has not entered an overbought phase. The blue and green dots on the chart represent the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures whether an asset is overbought or oversold, indicating the current market remains in a relatively healthy zone. According to the model, the current price of around $67,000 may just be the starting point toward the average price of this cycle, still undervalued.
3. No investment is without risk; watch out for model limitations: However, PlanB admits that the S2F model is not infallible. In fact, it has faced criticism for focusing too heavily on supply-side changes while neglecting demand-side market dynamics.
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