Gate News reports that on March 19, Shigeto Nagai, Japan economist at the Oxford Economics Research Institute, stated that considering Japan’s potential stagflation, the Bank of Japan is now expected to delay its next rate hike from June to July. Afterwards, the central bank is expected to continue gradually raising interest rates in the first and third quarters of 2027. In the short term, rising energy costs will accelerate supply-side driven inflation again, with core CPI expected to return to 2% only by the second quarter of 2027, instead of the previously forecasted fourth quarter of 2026. Although spring wage negotiations are expected to be strong, higher inflation will limit real income growth. Therefore, the institute has lowered Japan’s 2026 real GDP growth forecast by 0.4 percentage points to 0.3%. Oxford Economics believes that despite concerns over inflation expectations and a weak yen, the Bank of Japan may become more cautious about raising interest rates, prioritizing the impact on corporate profits and real household income.
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