Trump says zero inflation got exposed; U.S. consumers’ inflation expectations hit a 7-month high

Gate News message: New U.S. data shows that consumer concerns about inflation are heating up, sharply contrasting with President Trump’s claim of “zero inflation.” According to The Kobeissi Letter, in March Americans’ inflation expectations jumped by 0.7 percentage points to 6.2%, the highest level since August 2025 and the largest month-over-month increase since April 2025. The University of Michigan’s one-year inflation expectations index also rose by 0.4 percentage points to 3.8%, further confirming that price anxiety is intensifying.

Interest-rate expectations also climbed. The share of consumers expecting rates to be raised over the next 12 months increased by 7.5 percentage points to 42.4%, suggesting that inflation worries are spreading into the broader financial markets, not just the prices of food and everyday consumer goods. Analysts noted that this psychological pressure could prompt consumers to adjust spending and saving behavior, creating knock-on effects for economic activity.

A surge in oil prices has become an important factor accelerating inflation. U.S. crude oil prices have already broken above $100 per barrel. The Kobeissi Letter predicts that if oil prices stay at the current level for two months, the consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate could reach around 3.3%, which would mark the highest level since May 2024. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) also raised its 2026 forecast for overall U.S. inflation to 4.2% and said that rising global energy prices could push the G20 inflation rate above previously predicted levels.

Disruptions in the oil market have pushed consumer inflation expectations to a multi-month high, showing that the gap between political messaging and economic reality is widening. Analysts believe that if energy prices continue to stay elevated, American households will face more pressure from higher cost of living, and that financial markets’ expectations for monetary policy may adjust as well—further influencing investor sentiment toward crypto assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum and increasing market volatility.