Why Did Bitcoin Rise Today? Gold Safe-Haven Sentiment Easing, Institutions See Net Inflows for Third Consecutive Week into Digital Assets

Since the U.S.-led coalition began bombing Iran at the end of February, Bitcoin prices have increased by approximately 6%, significantly outperforming gold and stock markets during the same period. James Butterfill, research director at digital asset management firm CoinShares, pointed out that institutional investors have been contributing positive net inflows into digital asset products for three consecutive weeks, with this week’s investments reaching $500 million.

Asset Divergence in Crisis: Why Bitcoin Is Outperforming Traditional Safe Havens

The main reason for Bitcoin’s rise today lies in a subtle reshaping of global capital flows. Butterfill clearly identified two mutually reinforcing drivers in a report to the media:

First, traditional safe assets are loosening: U.S. Treasury yields are rising, which logically indicates that investors are selling Treasuries rather than buying them. For a long time, Treasuries have been the preferred safe haven during geopolitical crises—when demand increases, prices go up and yields decline. The inverse movement of yields directly reflects the breakdown of this traditional “buy Treasuries in crises” behavior.

Second, Bitcoin’s non-sovereign nature is shining: Butterfill stated, “Bitcoin tends to perform well during geopolitical turmoil, partly because of its characteristics as a non-sovereign, censorship-resistant asset.” When the U.S. dollar, U.S. stocks, and U.S. bonds are under pressure simultaneously, Bitcoin—“not belonging to any sovereign country”—becomes one of the few assets able to maintain independence in such an environment.

Additionally, Butterfill pointed out that technical indicators are also playing a “catalytic” role—before the crisis erupted, Bitcoin’s price was near the bottom of this cycle, providing technical support for a rebound driven by fundamentals.

Institutional Funds Have Been Net Inflow for Three Weeks: Bitcoin Is Becoming a Geopolitical Portfolio Tool

CoinShares’ data reveals why Bitcoin is rising today from an institutional perspective. Digital asset investment products have recorded positive net inflows for three consecutive weeks, with this week’s inflow reaching $500 million. Butterfill directly pointed out that this sends a clear signal: “Institutional investors see Bitcoin as an asset worth holding during turbulent geopolitical environments, rather than selling it.”

However, this institutional confidence is not evenly distributed across all crypto assets. CoinShares’ analysis also notes that if household budgets remain under pressure, categories related to disposable income—such as speculative trading and meme coins—will face significant resistance. Conversely, the political and regulatory drivers behind the popularity of stablecoins, especially in the U.S. market, remain solid and relatively unaffected by oil shocks.

Technical Outlook: Is $72,000 a Breakout or a Rejection?

(Source: Trading View)

From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin has been trading within a narrowing ascending wedge since early February. The current price is pushing toward the first resistance zone at $72,000. Key technical levels are as follows:

Primary Resistance: $72,000—if a close above this level is achieved, the upward targets are $80,000, $84,000, and ultimately $90,000.

Support 1: $64,000—tested twice within the wedge and held, making it a critical demand zone.

Support 2: $60,000—the last major line of defense before the structure fully collapses.

Ascending wedges often indicate a potential downward breakout; the chart suggests that before a genuine rebound occurs, the price may retest $64,000. Until $72,000 is convincingly turned into support, the downside risk cannot be ignored.

FAQs

Why did Bitcoin outperform gold by over 5 percentage points today?
This outperformance results from multiple factors stacking up: Bitcoin is technically near cycle lows, offering rebound potential; its non-sovereign asset status is gaining extra premium amid overall dollar asset pressure; and ongoing institutional buying as a marginal pricing force provides a foundation for continued growth. In contrast, gold’s gains are limited by macro factors such as a strengthening dollar and rising U.S. bond yields.

What does rising U.S. Treasury yields mean for Bitcoin?
Rising yields typically put pressure on non-yielding assets like gold and Bitcoin. However, this situation is more complex: the rise in yields is driven by investors actively selling Treasuries, indicating a shake-up in the traditional “safe haven” status of dollar-denominated assets. In this environment, some funds are shifting into Bitcoin as an alternative “non-sovereign store of value,” which is the deeper logic behind Bitcoin’s countertrend rise.

Does three weeks of institutional net inflows signal a trend reversal?
Three consecutive weeks of positive inflows are a positive sign but not enough to confirm a trend reversal. CoinShares’ data shows institutional behavior is shifting, but Bitcoin’s technical resistance at $72,000 has yet to be convincingly broken. The ascending wedge also suggests a potential retest of $64,000 in the short term. Confirming the trend requires a sustained breakout above $72,000 and continued positive inflow data.