Why is Bitcoin up today? Trump’s move to withdraw from Iran within 2 to 3 weeks sparks a rebound

U.S. President Donald Trump announced that he would withdraw from Iran in 2 to 3 weeks, and Bitcoin (BTC) saw a short-term rebound. This is the most direct political signal since the U.S.-led coalition launched attacks on Iran in February that the two sides’ conflict could potentially come to an end, briefly boosting market risk appetite. However, Bitcoin is standing at a sensitive technical juncture: if the close this month is below $67,300, it will lock in its sixth consecutive month of monthly declines in the form of bearish monthly candlesticks.

Bitcoin’s core catalysts for today’s rise: Trump’s strongest ceasefire declaration

On Tuesday, Trump told reporters at the White House, “I’m estimating in two weeks, maybe two weeks, maybe three weeks…… We’re going to leave, because we have no reason to stay here.” He claimed the United States has achieved its stated goals of eliminating Iran’s nuclear threat and its military capabilities, including achieving “regime change,” and said, “I have only one objective: they cannot have nuclear weapons, and that objective has been achieved.”

The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump told his aides that even if the Strait of Hormuz remains basically closed, he is willing to end military operations against Iran. Iran’s President Pezeshkian also said in parallel that if it can receive security guarantees, Iran is willing to end the conflict, creating room for diplomatic channels.

The market has interpreted Trump’s remarks as a potential prelude to a scenario where oil prices fall, inflation pressures ease, and the Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting room reopens. Under this signal, risk assets such as Bitcoin are seeing short-term buying demand.

A historic inflection point: Bitcoin is approaching a rare confirmation level for six straight monthly declines

This rebound is occurring against a sensitive technical backdrop. Bitcoin has posted five consecutive months of closes lower, with the monthly declines as follows:

October: -4%

November: -18%

December: -3%

January: -10%

February: -15%

March: currently -1% (if the monthly close is below $67,300, it would confirm the sixth bearish month)

This streak of consecutive declines last appeared from August 2018 to January 2019, after which Bitcoin rebounded for five months in a row. However, the current macro environment is clearly more complex: oil prices above $100 per barrel, intensifying rate-hike expectations, and concerns about the safety characteristics of quantum computing—all represent additional downside pressures not seen in 2018.

Three scenarios for April: holding support and “on-chain capitulation” signals

(Source: Trading View)

Bitcoin has formed a bear flag consolidation between the support level at $62,300 and the resistance band of $68,000 to $72,000. The RSI is neutral but sloping down, and the ADX reading of 25 indicates that a trend is taking shape. Analysts propose three main directions for April:

Bullish scenario: Holding $62,300 and breaking above the $71,300 resistance could set Bitcoin up to retest the bear-flag invalidation level at $79,000; Standard Chartered Bank’s year-end target of $150,000 remains technically valid.

Base scenario: Macroeconomic uncertainty (oil prices, interest rates, geopolitics) persists. Institutional buyers remain cautious and on the sidelines, and Bitcoin continues consolidating between $62,300 and $72,000.

Bear market scenario: A break below $62,300 triggers a Fibonacci retracement, which points sequentially to $56,800 and $52,300. The 200-week moving average (at $59,268) is the last remaining structural line of defense.

On-chain data shows that nearly half of Bitcoin’s circulating supply is in unrealized losses. Historically, this level has been highly associated with market late-stage capitulation, but it has also occurred during prolonged bear cycles where Bitcoin traded below $54,000—so the directional implications of the signal still need further confirmation.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the fundamental reason Bitcoin is up today?

Trump’s announcement that the U.S. will withdraw from Iran in 2 to 3 weeks is the core catalyst behind today’s rise in Bitcoin. This is the most direct signal of peace ending since the conflict began, driving a brief rebound in market risk appetite. Expectations of lower oil prices also ease concerns about inflation and the Federal Reserve’s policy path, leading to a short-term rebound in risk assets such as Bitcoin.

Does a six-month streak of declines confirmed mean Bitcoin is entering a deeper bear market?

In Bitcoin’s history, six straight monthly declines have occurred only once in 2018–2019. At the time, it ultimately became the bottom of the bear market. However, the current macro environment is more complex than in 2018 (oil prices above $100, pressure from rate hikes, and ETF institutional outflows), making it more uncertain whether the same technical pattern can produce the same outcome. The ability to hold $62,300 is the key line in the sand for judging the outlook.

How reliable is Trump’s ceasefire statement?

Although Trump’s remarks are direct, Iran has set preconditions (security guarantees), and the actual level of reopening of the Strait of Hormuz remains unclear. Markets typically interpret such geopolitical statements as short-term positive catalysts, but a reversal of structural trends requires more substantive confirmation of diplomatic progress. It’s recommended to closely monitor the dynamics of subsequent negotiations.