Analyst Benjamin Louvet from OpFi Investment pointed out that the Federal Reserve faces challenges in balancing inflation and employment, and may not choose to raise interest rates. Additionally, declining revenues in Gulf countries could impact U.S. debt financing, forcing the Fed to lower interest rates or resume bond purchases.

Deutsche Bank report analyzes the current state of the petrodollar system, pointing out that it faced pressure before the war. Factors such as U.S. energy independence, the trend of oil currency localization, and shaken trust in the Gulf region pose challenges to the system, resulting in increased Middle Eastern oil flows to Asia and more non-dollar transactions.

Middle East tensions are escalating and impacting conference and trade show activities in the Gulf region, with multiple international conferences and exhibitions being forced to adjust or postpone schedules. Air routes are being disrupted and security risks are rising. Major events such as the F1 Bahrain Grand Prix and TOKEN2049 Summit have been affected, putting pressure on regional economic diversification efforts.

Institutional prime brokerage LTP has reached a strategic partnership with Singapore Gulf Bank to integrate fiat and digital asset infrastructure, providing compliant funding solutions for institutional clients, including real-time settlement, fiat custody, and capital efficiency enhancement services.

Gate News reports that on March 20, according to monitoring data, a newly created three-day wallet staked $44,000 on Iran maintaining control of Kharg Island this month, with the current market probability at 91.5%. It is understood that Kharg Island is a core oil export hub in the northern Persian Gulf for Iran, handling over 90% of Iran's crude oil exports and holding irreplaceable strategic value for Iran's economy and global energy supply chains.

On March 19, Bitcoin pulled back to $70,000, while Ethereum declined to $2,160. The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates unchanged, oil prices rose, and Iran's attack on Gulf energy facilities drove crude oil and natural gas prices to surge. The crypto market saw liquidations of nearly $600 million in positions, with the majority being long positions. Market futures open interest decreased, and mainstream coin funding rates turned negative.

On March 19, 3 accounts on Polymarket invested $9,400 betting on "whether there will be a new national attack on Iran before April," with the current probability at 24%. Saudi Arabia's Foreign Minister and the UK government have responded to this, condemning Iran's attacks on Gulf states.

March 16 News: Prediction market Polymarket shows that bets on "U.S. military will not enter Iran before April" have surged significantly, with someone investing $83,600 to successfully raise the probability to 73%. Trump plans to establish an international coalition to ensure the security of the Strait of Hormuz; however, Gulf countries deny providing support for military operations. Despite Iran's attacks on Israel and U.S. military bases, the United States' response remains focused on maintaining freedom of navigation through the strait.

On March 12, PolyBeats detected two high-win-rate addresses betting on prediction markets that "the US and Iran will not cease fire before May," with a combined investment of $15,000 at a current price of 52.5¢. Meanwhile, Iran escalated attacks on Gulf shipping, causing a halt to traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with analysts seeing no signs of de-escalation.

Gate News Update, March 7 — According to data from the Polymarket website, the probability of the event "Crude oil prices will surpass $100 in March" has surged from a low of 35% yesterday to 76%, with trading volume exceeding $10 million. Previously, JPMorgan stated that even if the passage through the Strait of Hormuz is blocked for only 3-4 weeks, it could force Gulf Cooperation Council member countries to shut down oil production and push Brent crude oil prices above $100 per barrel.