#比特币市场周期 Looking back at the historical cycles of Bitcoin, this recent fall reminds me of the pullback in May 2021. At that time, BTC also fell nearly 30% from its peak, and market sentiment was equally gloomy. However, history is always remarkably similar. During every bull-bear transition, there are always those who are anxious and believe that this time "it's really over." But the fact is, those who persist in buying during pessimistic sentiment often reap substantial rewards in the next bull run.

Currently, BTC has fallen below $100,000 and the 50-week moving average, and the market is indeed pessimistic. However, in the long run, this may be a good opportunity to accumulate. The key is to remain rational and not let short-term fluctuations affect your judgment. I have experienced multiple cycles and know that market sentiment always swings between extreme optimism and extreme pessimism. Now everyone is focused on the support levels of $92,000 and $88,000, which instead gives us a chance to think - can we think inversely, being greedy when others are fearful?

Of course, this does not mean blindly bottom-fishing. We still need to pay attention to changes in the macro environment, such as economic data after the reopening of the U.S. government. At the same time, we must be alert to the risks of severe fluctuations in the short term. However, from a longer-term perspective, this could be a good opportunity for positioning. History tells us that hope is nurtured in despair and that waiting for dawn in darkness often leads to excess returns.