# 比特币市场周期

#比特币市场周期 Seeing Yi Lihua's words, what flashed through my mind was the 2017 market rally. At that time, some people kept shouting "Now is the best buying point" at the bottom range, but most still chased in at high levels. What's the difference? It's whether you can truly understand the rhythm of the cycle.
The interest rate hike in Japan is indeed a turning point. Looking back at history, every major liquidity shift has rewritten the script of the crypto market—2020's liquidity injection triggered that bull run, while the tightening in 2022 hit everyone hard. Now, with the opposite operation

#比特币市场周期 Seeing the internal divergence of opinions at Fundstrat, I have to be honest—this is the most authentic reflection of the market.
Sean Farrell spoke very candidly: they serve aggressive investors with over 20% exposure to crypto assets, relying on active rebalancing to outperform the market; while Tom Lee serves institutional giants with 1-5% Bitcoin allocation, requiring long-term discipline. Two sets of logic, two different time horizons—can their views really be the same?
But this is exactly what I want to remind you—don't be hijacked by the words of influencers. Predictions like

#比特币市场周期 Seeing Dalio's perspective, I have a slightly different view. He says that Bitcoin is difficult for central banks to hold on a large scale due to transaction transparency and hacking risks. This logic was indeed valid in the past, but the situation is changing now.
The Bitcoin market cycle itself is evolving—from early pure speculation to now, where institutions are gradually entering and exploring national-level asset reserves. This process is essentially a continuous validation of transparency and security. El Salvador has already taken the lead, and micro-level central bank attemp

#比特币市场周期 Dalio's words sound like he's cooling down big institutional holdings in Bitcoin 🤔 But from another perspective, doesn't this just indicate that the supply pattern has already been locked in?
Central banks are afraid of transparency and risk, so they dare not enter the market aggressively. The remaining chips are even more scarce. For retail investors like us, being able to get in now is already a win. When the true cycle top arrives, Bitcoin lacking large institutional buyers will only surge in a smaller liquidity environment.
To put it simply, hesitation from institutions is actua

#比特币市场周期 After looking at Santiment's analysis, social media panic sentiment has not yet reached the necessary level, which means the market's true bottom may not have arrived. The figure of 75,000 is right in front of us, and with a current decline of 14.77%, it indicates there is still ample downside potential.
The key point is that this statement hits the pain point of our copy trading—most people are still optimistic at this moment, expecting a short-term reversal. Anyone who has experienced several cycles knows that the real bottoming process is often accompanied by a full release of pes

#比特币市场周期 Seeing the internal strategic divergence at Fundstrat, the essence of this reflects the differentiated pricing of investor profiles. Sean Farrell adopts an active rebalancing strategy for clients with high-configuration crypto assets, while Tom Lee's framework serves institutional investors with 1-5% allocations— their time horizons, risk tolerances, and return expectations are completely misaligned, making their differing viewpoints reasonable.
The key signal lies in the current assessment that Bitcoin is in an "unclaimed" valuation zone. The rebound at the beginning of the year, th

#比特币市场周期 The altcoin season has always been here; the problem is that you just haven't caught it. Arthur Hayes hit the nail on the head — HYPE soared from $2 to $60, SOL went from $7 to $300, these are real and tangible increases. Many people are still waiting for the "real altcoin season" to arrive, but little do they know, the opportunity has been right in front of them.
The key is to change your trading logic; you can't always follow the same old routines. Every cycle in the crypto world has new stories and narratives. Trading based on yesterday's hot topics is likely to leave you behind.

#比特币市场周期 Now is the best spot investment window, and this judgment is very critical. Looking at Yi Lihua's analysis, Japan's interest rate hike is the last bearish factor, and short-term contract fluctuations are just noise. In the face of long-term trends, these are nothing.
The key points are as follows: there are three major positives for the crypto industry next year—interest rate cuts and liquidity infusion, crypto policies, and financial onboarding. If you want to earn a few thousand dollars in the bull market, you need to be mentally prepared to withstand fluctuations of a few hundred

#比特币市场周期 Seeing discussions about the altcoin season, I am reminded that many friends have been asking the same question recently: When will the market come back? In fact, this reflects a psychological trap that is easy to overlook.
Market opportunities never appear according to our preset timetable. As Arthur Hayes mentioned, the altcoin season is always ongoing; it's just that the participants are changing. Some make profits, some miss out, and some even suffer significant losses — the difference often isn't luck, but strategy.
This reminds me of an important tip: don't rush to chase the ne

#比特币市场周期 I just saw Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio say that it’s unlikely for central banks to hold large amounts of Bitcoin, which made me think of a question—why would this affect Bitcoin’s market cycle?🤔
I used to be naive and think that if all the global central banks started buying Bitcoin, the price would skyrocket. But upon closer reflection, the transparency of transactions and the risk of being hacked that Dalio mentioned are indeed concerns that institutional big players care about. In other words, Bitcoin’s "supply pattern" might already be relatively fixed and unlikely to change f