#比特币市场周期 Seeing Dalio's perspective, I have a slightly different view. He says that Bitcoin is difficult for central banks to hold on a large scale due to transaction transparency and hacking risks. This logic was indeed valid in the past, but the situation is changing now.

The Bitcoin market cycle itself is evolving—from early pure speculation to now, where institutions are gradually entering and exploring national-level asset reserves. This process is essentially a continuous validation of transparency and security. El Salvador has already taken the lead, and micro-level central bank attempts are breaking the "impossible" curse.

The key lies in the **supply pattern**. The total supply of Bitcoin is fixed at 21 million coins, which is the real chip. As more institutions and countries realize its scarcity value, competition will become increasingly fierce. Instead of saying central banks won't hold it, it's more accurate to say they will eventually face this choice—either participate in this revolution that redefines value storage or be marginalized by history.

Questions of transparency and security are fundamentally unsubstantiated under technological iteration and time. Bitcoin has operated for 15 years without issues, which is the best answer itself. Future competition will likely be a contest over this limited supply.