Thursday's Cryptocurrency and Global Asset Trends: OPEC+ Decision Window, Fed Rate Cut Expectations Rise, Cryptocurrencies Approach Weekly Options Expiration Day

Market Focus on OPEC+ Decision, Crude Oil and Safe-Haven Assets Diverge

This weekend, the OPEC+ ministerial meeting is set to take place, with participants expecting to maintain the initial plan to suspend production increases until early 2026. According to Reuters, eight OPEC+ member countries (including Saudi Arabia, Russia, UAE, etc.) have collectively increased production by about 2.9 million barrels per day from April to December. It is estimated that they will hit the brakes in the first quarter of next year and revert to the previously agreed framework.

This move has boosted international crude oil market sentiment, with WTI crude rising for two consecutive trading days, currently at $58.97 per barrel (up 0.72%). Analysts suggest that if OPEC+ confirms the suspension of production increases, it will further support oil prices to stabilize at mid-term lows.

Meanwhile, gold, as a traditional safe-haven asset, also performed steadily, closing at $4157 per ounce (up 0.78%). Investors’ cautious attitude towards economic prospects continues to support gold prices to maintain resilience around the $4150 level.

Federal Reserve December Rate Cut Probability Hits 87%, Easing Expectations Rise

According to the latest data from CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December has risen to 86.9%, while the chance of maintaining the current rate is only 13.1%. Looking ahead to the total rate cut in January next year, the market expects a 67.3% chance of a 25 basis point cut by the end of January, and a 23.1% chance of a total 50 basis point cut.

Morgan Stanley strategists pointed out that as signals of slowing US economic growth strengthen, an additional rate cut cycle will provide significant support to emerging markets. The bank recommends maintaining long positions in emerging market local currency bonds, with expected returns reaching around 8% by mid-2026.

In contrast, European Central Bank Governing Council member Kazaks recently warned that the timing for ECB rate cuts is not yet ripe, citing that core inflation in the Eurozone remains well above the 2% target and faces upside and downside risks. This statement casts uncertainty over the upcoming ECB policy meeting on December 18.

Cryptocurrency Stabilizes, Weekly Options Expiry Sparks Trading Activity

The cryptocurrency market overall shows signs of stabilization. Bitcoin has risen 0.91% in 24 hours, currently at $92,520, maintaining a key support level above $90,000. Ethereum performs even stronger, up 2.45% in 24 hours, trading at $3,250, holding steady around the $3,000 mark.

Notably, this Friday marks the weekly options expiry date, a time often associated with increased market volatility and trading volume. Institutional investors and retail traders will adjust their positions during this week, likely leading to more active price discovery mechanisms for Bitcoin and Ethereum in the short term.

Japan’s Fiscal Stimulus Hits Record High, Inflation Expectations and Central Bank Policies Face Crossroads

The Japanese government plans to issue an additional ¥11.7 trillion (approximately RMB 529.9 billion) in government bonds to support a new round of economic stimulus measures. However, this large-scale fiscal injection has raised market doubts. Goldman Sachs analysts warn that the actual economic impact of this stimulus may be lower than expected; Bank of America further notes that Japan’s stimulus scale this year has increased significantly compared to last year, greatly raising the risk of a widening fiscal deficit in 2026.

The latest forecast from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) worsens the outlook, predicting further deterioration of Japan’s fiscal deficit in 2026. The swap market signals that expectations for a December rate hike by the Bank of Japan have surged from about 21% a week ago to over 50%, reflecting growing investor concerns about yen depreciation risks.

Global Stock Markets Diverge, European Stocks Slightly Up

The US stock market was closed all day for Thanksgiving, limiting trading activity. European stocks showed modest gains across the board, with Germany’s DAX 30 up 0.18%, France’s CAC 40 up 0.04%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 up 0.02%. Hong Kong night session futures also adjusted, with the Hang Seng Index futures closing at 25,935 points, down 11 points from the previous close.

The US dollar index slightly declined, quoted at 99.56 (down 0.03%), while the 10-year US Treasury yield remained at 3.99%.

Ukraine Peace Negotiations Stall, Russia and US Take Opposing Stances

The prospects for Russia-Ukraine negotiations remain uncertain. Russian President Putin stated that Ukrainian forces must withdraw from occupied territories for fighting to cease, warning that if Ukraine does not cooperate, Russia will use force to push forward. Putin also said that if the peace proposals from the US and Ukraine cannot reach consensus, Russia will continue fighting.

Ukraine, through President Zelensky, expressed determination to advance negotiations, claiming that Ukraine and the US delegation will meet this week to push forward the consensus reached at the Geneva conference and seek concrete forms of peace guarantees. The US delegation will visit Moscow next week for further consultations.

UK Resists US Pressure, Insists on Digital Tax on Tech Giants

Despite pressure from US President Trump, the UK government has decided to maintain its digital services tax policy on US tech companies. A review report published by the UK Treasury on Wednesday states that the tax policy will continue until a global tax agreement is reached. This move is expected to generate billions of pounds in revenue for the UK Treasury.

Tech Giants Train AI Models Overseas to Circumvent US Chip Ban

According to the Financial Times, Chinese tech companies are training the latest large language models at data centers across Southeast Asia to evade US export restrictions on Nvidia chips. Tech giants like Alibaba and ByteDance are involved. The report states that since the US restricted exports of Nvidia H20 chips to China in April, such overseas training activities have increased significantly.

Notably, DeepSeek is an exception. The company had already purchased大量 Nvidia chips before the US ban, allowing it to complete model training domestically. Recently, DeepSeek released a new mathematical reasoning model, DeepSeekMath-V2, which uses a self-verifiable training framework and has achieved gold medal levels in multiple international math competitions. The model’s code and weights have been open-sourced on Hugging Face and GitHub.

Oracle Debt Risk Indicator Hits 3-Year High, AI Spending Boom Draws Attention

Morgan Stanley credit analysts issued a warning on Oracle('s debt outlook, with the company’s debt risk indicator reaching a three-year high. According to ICE data, the cost of credit default swaps (CDS) for Oracle over the next five years has risen to 125 basis points annually.

Analysts point out that multiple threats—such as financing gaps, balance sheet expansion, and technological obsolescence—are looming over Oracle. If the company fails to effectively address investor concerns about its large-scale AI spending plans, its credit risk could further escalate next year. Oracle’s 5-year CDS cost could break above 150 basis points in the short term, and if communication about new financing remains limited, it could approach 200 basis points, nearing the 198 basis points high during the 2008 financial crisis.

In September, Oracle issued $18 billion in investment-grade bonds. Earlier this month, a group of 20 banks arranged a $18 billion project financing loan for building data centers in New Mexico. Banks also provided a $38 billion package loan to fund data center construction in Texas and Wisconsin.

Today’s Key Economic Data Preview

Upcoming important indicators include: Japan October unemployment rate, France November CPI initial estimate, France Q3 GDP annualized final, Switzerland November KOF leading indicator, Germany November seasonally adjusted unemployment, Germany November CPI initial estimate, Canada September GDP monthly rate, etc.