# 比特币价格与估值

#比特币价格与估值 The end-of-year market rally indeed tests patience. Polymarket's data is highly valuable for reference—Bitcoin's probability of breaking 100,000 this year has dropped from 11% to 10%, with the expectation around 95,000 remaining unchanged, while the risk of falling below 80,000 has decreased from 24% to 18%. It seems like an improvement, but in reality, the market is re-pricing expectations.
From the trades of a few aggressive traders I follow, their pace of adding positions around the 100,000 mark has noticeably slowed down. This is not bearishness but a rational adjustment of risk

#比特币价格与估值 Seeing Tom Lee's team's series of "contradictory" forecasts, I have to be honest: this is not disagreement, it's viewing the same scene through different lenses.
Sean Farrell suggests Bitcoin could drop to 60-65K, while Tom Lee calls for 200K. It seems like one is bearish and the other bullish. But a closer look at their logic reveals—Farrell targets aggressive investors with over 20% crypto asset allocation, focusing on active rebalancing and short-term market outperformance; Lee serves traditional large institutions, with only 1-5% allocated to BTC and ETH, emphasizing long-term s

#比特币价格与估值 Wait, BitMine's ETH unrealized loss is 4.1 billion? 🤯 The holding cost is $3906, now at $2868, this is a vivid textbook of blood loss. What about the previous wave of Ethereum believers? Why are they all silent now?
In contrast, Strategy's BTC is still showing unrealized gains, which is the real alpha allocation. It really still comes down to Bitcoin; the Ethereum ecosystem is now just living off its old gains, with asset pressure clearly evident. So in this market, whoever keeps stubbornly stacking ETH blocks is just waiting to be educated 👊
Bitcoin is the way to go, remember thi

#比特币价格与估值 When I saw this set of data, I was thinking about a question: what does the huge gap between the holding cost and the current price reflect?
BitMine's Ethereum unrealized loss is $4.1 billion, with a holding cost of $3,906, and the current price is $2,868. This is not just a simple numerical decline, but a textbook case about timing, positioning, and mindset.
I often tell everyone that the hardest part of investing is not choosing the right asset, but maintaining rationality amid long-term fluctuations. When you see such unrealized losses, someone might ask: why not cut losses at th

#比特币价格与估值 Seeing Arthur Hayes's remarks, what flashed through my mind was the 2020 cycle.
At that time, the Federal Reserve launched unlimited quantitative easing, and the market was filled with voices of "all-time highs," with Bitcoin soaring from $3,700. Many people asked me whether to go all-in, and my answer was: first, watch the Federal Reserve's true intentions. RMP and QE may appear different on the surface, but their core logic is the same—both are about releasing liquidity to hedge risks. Hayes has grasped this point correctly.
But there's a historical detail worth recalling: each re

#比特币价格与估值 Seeing the latest institutional forecasts, I have a few honest words to say. The numbers from Galaxy and Citibank are indeed enticing—$250,000 and $143,000—but the key is to understand the logic behind these predictions.
Let's look at the current situation: BTC is hovering around $100,000, and the market is uncertain. By the end of 2026, institutional option pricing shows roughly equal probabilities of dropping to $50,000 or rising to $250,000—what does this indicate? The market has no consensus, and volatility is significant.
My observation is this: in the short term (2026), it’s i

#比特币价格与估值 New gossip again. The current situation of Bitcoin is quite interesting; the panic sentiment is not yet deep enough, which means the bottom may not have truly appeared yet. Santiment's data shows that many people on social media remain optimistic, but history tells us that when the true bottom forms, such voices usually disappear completely.
The current predictions vary widely. Some say Bitcoin could still fall to around $75,000, while others suggest it might drop to $65,000. But looking at Polymarket's betting data, the probability of reaching $100,000 this year has dropped to only

#比特币价格与估值 Noticed an interesting technical signal—BTC dropped from the October high of 126K to November 84K, and the RSI indicator fell below 30 into the oversold zone. Historical data shows that since 2023, this situation has occurred 5 times, each time followed by an upward trend.
Based on macro research retrospection, if the pattern continues, BTC could challenge 170K within three months. From on-chain fund flow perspective, the inflow trajectory of crypto ETFs is indeed quite positive, with major traditional financial institutions gradually entering the market. Negative sentiment mainly s

#比特币价格与估值 Just saw a news story and I’m a bit stunned 🤔 Is BitMine’s Ethereum holding showing an unrealized loss of $4.121 billion? That number is really shocking... It seems like these big institutions are all losing money, so what should we small investors do? 😅
After taking a closer look at the data, the ETH holding cost is $3,906, and it’s now only $2,868, so the decline is indeed significant. On the other hand, the Bitcoin strategy still shows an unrealized profit of $7.649 billion. Does this mean that BTC is relatively more resistant to declines? Or am I misunderstanding?
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