# 比特币宏观表现

#比特币宏观表现 Today I saw VanEck's 2026 outlook, and I was truly excited! 📈
Bitcoin's performance this year has indeed been underestimated. Although it underperformed the Nasdaq 100 index by about 50% in the short term, this is exactly the moment for us to remain calm and observe. Imagine it like a spring ready to release — the lower it is compressed, the stronger the rebound.
VanEck's logic resonates deeply with me: global central banks continue to print money to address debt issues, which means the big trend of fiat currency devaluation has already formed. Against this macro backdrop, Bitcoin,

#比特币宏观表现 Looking at the latest data, Bitcoin's Q4 decline exceeded 22%, marking its worst performance since 2018. But a closer look at the logic behind this rebound is quite interesting—rising to $90,000 seems impressive, but the underlying capital signals are quite weak.
From an on-chain perspective, this is more of a technical correction rather than a sign of new market entry. The movements of large holders remain cautious, and no clear signs of significant buying have been observed. The total crypto market cap has regained the $3 trillion level, but whether it can hold this critical positi

#比特币宏观表现 Seeing the divergence in opinions between Tom Lee and Sean Farrell, I actually think this is a good phenomenon. It reminds me of the 2017 cycle when institutions first entered the market—back then, debates among analysts were much more intense.
Different analytical frameworks, different target audiences, and naturally different strategies. Tom Lee is targeting large funds with only 1-5% allocation to BTC and ETH, focusing on long-term structural trends and discipline; Sean Farrell's clients are professional investors with over 20% in crypto assets, needing to cycle through market pha

#比特币宏观表现 Recently, I came across an analysis claiming that Bitcoin will underperform gold and the US stock market by 2025. I was completely stunned😅
After looking into the reasons carefully, I realized it's not that Bitcoin isn't good, but that current energy is being diverted to AI. Imagine, instead of using electricity at mining farms to mine Bitcoin, it's now used to train large models—because the economic value generated by large models is higher! It's like all the money is chasing the place that can create new wealth.
And why is gold so strong? It turns out it's because of global instab

#比特币宏观表现 Peter Brandt says the next bull market peak for Bitcoin will be in September 2029? 2029... still five years away from now. Is this asking us to hodl until the end of time? 😭
But on the other hand, this guy successfully predicted the crash in 2018, so his analysis this time can't be completely ignored. The five-time logarithmic parabola + 80% decline cycle pattern does seem to have some regularity. But the question is, how much can happen in these five years!
The current issue is where the bottom really is—whether it's still going down or has already been touched. Waiting until 2029

#比特币宏观表现 Seeing the data that Q4 dropped over 22%, I have to be honest. This rebound to 90,000 definitely caught many people's attention, but a closer look at the underlying logic reveals that it's not a good sign.
Technical correction and genuine capital inflow are two different things. The recent sharp decline was severe, and the rebound is just a relief from excessive selling pressure. Such rebounds are often the most deceptive. Looking now, it's still 30% below the beginning of the year. What does this indicate? It shows that there has been no new capital truly optimistic about this marke

#比特币宏观表现 Q4 fell over 22%, marking the worst quarter since 2018—what does this data indicate? The rebound to $90,000 seems impressive, but a closer breakdown reveals the essence: this is technical correction, not fresh capital entering the market.
Recently, I’ve been reviewing the performance of several copy trading accounts and noticed a phenomenon: most traders who chased the high during this rebound are actually responding to "false signals." While the news has been hyping up sentiment improvement, market liquidity remains tight, with frequent retracement movements during US trading hours—

#比特币宏观表现 When I saw the data that Bitcoin's Q4 decline exceeded 22%, I thought of many friends' recent anxiety. The rebound to $90,000 indeed offers a glimmer of hope, but a closer look at the analyst's judgment—this is more of a technical correction rather than genuine capital inflow—we need to stay sober.
History shows us that during seasonally strong periods combined with liquidity tightening, traps are most likely to occur. From the beginning of the year until now, Bitcoin has retraced 30% from its high, which is a significant test of mentality. What I want to say is that the current pric

#比特币宏观表现 Bitcoin Q4 drops over 22%, marking the worst performance since 2018. This rebound looks comfortable but is actually illusory. The data shows: it only rebounded to $88,000, still 30% below the beginning of the year. It's just a technical correction; funds haven't truly come back.
In this market, wait for Bitcoin to stabilize before acting, don't chase highs. Instead, it's time to shift focus to new project interaction opportunities—during market downturns, it's the golden period for early adopters. Those newly launched projects and testnet activities are great opportunities to complet