# 经济衰退

The future direction presented by the most resilient consumption and labor market-related data in the United States is relatively clear. It is expected that the growth pressure in the United States will gradually increase in the second half of the year, and a mild recession may not even be ruled out. With regard to inflation, the Federal Reserve’s stance is not so dovish this time. Powell said that the committee may think that inflation will not fall back soon, so it is not realistic to cut interest rates soon. The decline in inflation is still the general direction, but because of the base fa

🚨 [ Is the 🚨 downside driven by the recession cycle coming? ]
Next week 3/21 (Thursday) 2:00 The Federal Reserve will hold the March FOMC meeting, the recent cryptocurrency market, U.S. stocks have been strong, constantly breaking through record highs, and the market sentiment is optimistic, but the monthly increase in CPI in January and February is slightly higher than expected, this data may lead to the Fed raising the economy again, and even adjusting the possibility of hawkish expectation management such as inflation and interest rate dot plots
In addition, Minneapolis Fed President Kash

In the last decade or so, BTC has closed with declines for three years and has been very regular, namely 2014, 2018, 2022, with exactly four years in between, and if this trend continues, perhaps in 2026 we will enter a bad bear market again, and from this point of view, we should be bullish on the performance in 2024 and 2025. In particular, this round of Fed tightening, spot ETFs, and a massive influx of institutions. In the past November, BTC miners sold a lot of BTC, but the sell-off did not cause the market to fall, and even BTC continued to break new highs.
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Grayscale believes that Bitcoin's sharp decline may have started with a macro catalyst and accelerated as leveraged longs on exchanges were liquidated. After a period of low volatility in the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin and other tokens have fallen sharply in the past two days. The biggest drop since early November 2022. The wide-ranging budget deficit in the United States and the quantitative tightening of the Federal Reserve have put pressure on the bond market, and this month, stocks and bonds have doubled. Minutes from last week's meeting showed that last month Fed staff no longer expec

Objectively speaking, the possibility of US national debt default is relatively small. Biden of the United States sent an optimistic signal to the market. Biden said that the United States will not default and is confident in reaching the debt ceiling. Judging from the debt crisis and economic recession, there is very little room for the Fed to raise interest rates in the second half of the year. The current question is not how far the terminal interest rate can go, but when it can cut interest rates. Having said that, if the United States does default on its debt, what impact will it have? Wh

There was some good news on the U.S. economy, with Goldman Sachs saying the chances of a recession in the U.S. have dropped from 20% to 15%, although the U.S. is already in recession. As the situation unfolds, many are poring over economic data on employment and unemployment, retail sales, manufacturing, and more. All of these analysts say the chances of the U.S. falling into a deeper recession are slim and not deep. The next FOMC meeting is held in about three weeks, and there is a 92% chance that interest rates will not be raised again, with interest rates already set at 5.25%-5.5%.
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