BTC dips slightly in the short term by 0.03%: the Iran–U.S. conflict escalates, and oil prices breaking above $100 weigh on risk assets

From 12:00 to 16:00 (UTC) on July 24, 2026, BTC traded in a tight range of 64,992.1–65,097.7 USDT, with an amplitude of 0.16%, a return of -0.03%, and an overall weak consolidation tone. Over the past 24 hours, BTC fell from a peak near $65,808 to around $64,406, down about 0.95%. The current price is on the lower end of the day; market volatility has risen somewhat, but the pullback remains relatively mild.

The main driver behind this move is the ongoing escalation of the military conflict between the US and Iran. The US military carried out airstrikes for the 13th consecutive night on Iran’s military command centers, drone storage facilities, and maritime capabilities. Iran has threatened to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, sharply raising geopolitical risk. Risk-off sentiment has pushed funds into the Dollar and US Treasuries, weighing on risk assets including BTC. At the same time, oil prices have broken through the $100 per barrel threshold due to attacks on Red Sea oil tankers and the risk of a potential Hormuz blockade, intensifying inflation expectations and further strengthening expectations that the Fed will keep rates high (Natixis expects rates to remain unchanged throughout 2026). The stronger Dollar and rising US Treasury yields create a double pressure on BTC.

Second, US stock markets are also under pressure: the Dow Jones Index saw selloffs, Tesla’s earnings missed expectations, and overall risk appetite cooled, indirectly dragging on crypto market sentiment. In addition, on the same day, Trump imposed a new round of double-digit tariffs on dozens of trade partners. Trade tensions combined with the military conflict add multiple layers of macro uncertainty. Gold prices also fell sharply, indicating this is not a crypto-only phenomenon, but a broad repricing of risk assets. On the technical side, at the 15-minute level, moving averages have turned bearish and ADX reached 30.15, suggesting the short-term downtrend has some momentum.

In the short term, risks of volatility should be monitored. Key support levels to watch are $64,359 (24h low) and the $64,000 whole-number mark; a break below could open further downside room. Continue monitoring the price of Brent crude oil, the DXY, and the yield on the 10-year US Treasuries, while also watching whether the US-Iran conflict escalates further and whether the wording in the Fed’s July meeting statement changes. Order book data shows liquidity is extremely limited right now; the buy/sell depth ratio of 4.88 reflects the presence of large individual orders. In a low-liquidity environment, BTC should be expected to experience sharp price swings.