BTC up slightly 0.36% over 15 minutes: Escalation of the US-Iran conflict and oil prices breaking $100 add pressure

From 14:45 to 15:00 (UTC) on July 24, 2026, BTC saw a slight uptick of 0.36% in the short term, trading within a price range of 63,739.0–64,057.5 USDT and an amplitude of 0.50%. Although the 15-minute candlestick closed green, over the prior 24 hours BTC had fallen from a peak of about $65,808 to around $64,406, a drop of roughly 0.95%. Overall, it remains in the lower end of the day’s range, with the market focused on geopolitical conflict and macro risk-hedging sentiment.

The core driver behind this move is the continued escalation of the military conflict between the U.S. and Iran, alongside a breakout in crude oil prices above $100 per barrel. The U.S. has carried out airstrikes on Iran for the 13th consecutive night, targeting its military command centers and maritime capabilities. Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has raised global concerns about oil supply, pushing Brent crude above the $100 per barrel threshold. The surge in oil prices directly strengthens expectations that the Fed will keep interest rates high for longer. Natixis expects the Fed to keep rates unchanged throughout 2026, and a stronger U.S. Dollar alongside rising U.S. Treasury yields is creating a double drag on BTC.

Second, geopolitical risk and macro events are reinforcing each other. Trump has imposed a new round of tariffs on dozens of trade partners. Trade tensions combined with ongoing military conflict create multiple sources of macro uncertainty. Gold also fell sharply at the same time, indicating that risk-hedging funds are flowing into the Dollar rather than into precious metals or crypto assets—suggesting this is not unique to the crypto market, but rather a broader repricing of risk assets. On the technical side, at the 15-minute level the moving averages have turned bearish and ADX is at 30.15, giving the short-term trend some momentum; however, at the daily level both RSI and the moving averages are neutral, leaving the overall market in a choppy, slightly weak range.

For risk warnings, current order-book liquidity is extremely thin, with total outstanding orders of less than 0.5 BTC. Be cautious of sharp price swings under low liquidity. Near-term support to watch is $64,359; a break below $64,000 could open up additional downside room. Continue to monitor Brent crude oil prices, the DXY trend, and developments in the U.S.–Iran conflict.