BTC drops 0.61% in 15 minutes: escalating Iran-Iraq conflict sparks safe-haven buying, with short-term technical indicators under pressure

From 00:30 to 00:45 (UTC) on July 13, 2026, BTC experienced a sharp decline of 0.61% within 15 minutes. The price ranged from $63,572.3 to $64,202.5 USDT, with a volatility of 0.98%. Escalation of geopolitical conflict boosted risk-off sentiment. BTC was up about 0.54% over the past 24 hours to $64,146, but the short-term gains were given back, and trading volume did not see significant expansion. The market response remained relatively restrained.

The primary driver behind this movement is the rapid escalation of the military conflict between the US and Iran. The US launched another round of airstrikes against Iran, targeting missile launch sites, ammunition depots, and communications facilities. Iran retaliated with missile and drone strikes against Gulf states including Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and Oman, severely threatening maritime safety in the Strait of Hormuz. Spillover of geopolitical risk pushed Brent crude oil prices up by about 3%, and BTC, as a beneficiary of the “digital gold” narrative, received support from bargain-hunting and safe-haven buying.

Meanwhile, there is a clear internal divergence within the Federal Reserve regarding inflation outlook. The June CPI year-over-year is expected to be 4.2%, driven by fuel prices, adding mid-term macro uncertainty. Technically, the short term is bearish: the 15-minute moving averages are pointing downward, and the 1-hour MACD has formed a dead cross, indicating potential pullback pressure. However, daily moving averages remain in a bullish posture, and the broader trend has not been broken. Order book liquidity is extremely thin, with only one depth level; buy and sell walls are densely concentrated around $64,145, making the price more sensitive to large order impacts.

Monitor the trajectory of the US-Iran conflict, June CPI data, and Federal Reserve Chair Warsh’s congressional testimony. For near-term levels, support is at $63,672 and resistance at $64,433. Volatility risk is currently elevated. Missing volume data weakens confidence in attribution, so it is recommended to observe changes in order book depth and how volume corroborates the move.