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U.S.-Iran Military Escalation Pushes ECB Rate Hike Expectations, But Euro Upside Limited: ING

2026-07-10 07:35:21

ING0.12%

EURUSD-0.21%

According to ING analyst Francesco Pesole, as reported by Jin10, recent U.S.-Iran military escalation has boosted market expectations for another European Central Bank rate hike, though the euro's upside remains constrained. The renewed conflict has driven EUR/USD short-term swap spreads to retighten. "While this gives fresh confidence to September ECB rate hike expectations that had been fading, the path for EUR/USD to strengthen from this latest escalation is quite narrow," Pesole said. The analyst noted the euro may stabilize Friday as markets await clarity, but faces downside risk toward 1.14.

Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third-party sources and is for reference only. It does not represent the views or opinions of Gate and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Virtual asset trading involves high risk. Please do not rely solely on the information on this page when making decisions. For details, see the Disclaimer.

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