The situation of retail investors in the crypto market: only hearing the bull sounds, but not knowing the taste of the bull.

Author: Ada, Deep Tide TechFlow

“The bull market has arrived, but why is it so quiet in all the groups?” Netizen Tongxin Cheese raised this question in the Opensky community group.

“Because of short position + short order.” Group member Niner replied.

For Niners who have experienced the last bull and bear market, this bull market should also be a good time to make a big profit, but Niners admit that they “didn’t make any money” in this market.

Similar to the case of Niner, there is also a full-time trader named Johnny, who claims that “ever since Trump tweeted Trump, he hasn’t made any money.”

There are quite a few cases like Niner and Johhny. Mark, a partner at Wagmi Capital, stated in an interview that “90% of retail investors are not making money” in this round of the bull market.

Although Niner hasn’t made any money yet, he has adjusted his investment strategy in a timely manner. “During the last cycle, I mainly held onto my investments, but this time I am mainly making trades, and because there are many new things coming out, I need to keep learning continuously, the pace has to be much faster.”

Niner’s adjustment actions were relatively timely, but most people are still slow to react.

“The investment logic this round is already different from before, but most retail investors have not realized it yet,” said KOL Hippo in an interview.

With institutional funds pouring into the cryptocurrency market, mainstream coins are repeatedly breaking historical highs. Whether in terms of funding or the acceptance and participation levels of technology and narratives, this is no longer a “retail-friendly” market. Some believe that the dividend period for retail investors in cryptocurrency is about to end, and this cycle may potentially be the last one belonging to retail investors.

Based on this, Deep Tide TechFlow interviewed several deep participants in the cryptocurrency market, including well-known KOLs, private equity fund partners, quantitative traders, and individual investors, to analyze this bull market from their respective perspectives, in order to present a diversified view of the crypto ecosystem.

A Different Crypto Bull Market

Hema, who entered the cryptocurrency space in 2016, is already very familiar with the cryptocurrency market. In the interview, he speaks clearly and loudly, slowly narrating his observations on this bull market: “This is no longer a market where everything rises together. If the previous bull market was a consensus-driven bull market, this bull market has taken a completely different path under the differentiation of various policies, capital, and factions.”

Hippo is a military veteran who worked in commercial real estate investment before getting into cryptocurrency investing. These experiences have shaped his bold yet cautious investment style. After going through several bullish and bearish cycles, he said, “What I’ve been thinking about is, what is truly valuable in this industry, and what are the assets that can withstand the bull and bear markets?”

If the previous market was not clear enough, this round of market trends has gradually helped Hippo find the answer.

“Actually, I have been thinking about this for a long time, and now I realize that this industry is essentially a financial internet. Whether it’s lending, trading, staking, or the currently popular tokenization of US stocks and stablecoins, they all revolve around finance and require a complete financial infrastructure and system.” Hippo said, “Based on this line of thinking, I believe Ethereum still has great potential, so I will mainly focus on Ethereum and DeFi assets now.”

In the view of Hippo, the starting point of this bull market began with BlackRock officially passing the Bitcoin ETF, with a short-term adjustment in between. The second phase of the bull market began after the passage of the “Great American Beauty Act” in the United States and is expected to peak in November.

But Mark has a different opinion.

He stated that the surge in Memecoin in the second half of last year was the starting point of this round of market, and also the first half of the bull market. The second half originates from the rise of Ethereum two weeks ago, which has triggered a new wave of market activity. It is expected to reach the market peak by September.

“In 2017, it was the boom of ICOs, and later it was the boom of altcoins, but this round is clearly different because everyone has already shed the illusion. Many concepts and stories have been debunked, leaving only financial applications. So even though Ethereum has surged, it still hasn’t broken its historical high, and altcoins have only seen localized gains,” Mark said.

Another veteran in the market is quantitative trader Cheng Hua. He currently has his own quantitative trading studio, primarily engaged in arbitrage trading of cryptocurrencies.

Chenghua noticed a different situation in the early stages of this round of market: in previous cycles, retail funds dominated, and small coins surged. However, this time, more mainstream funds have entered and flowed into mainstream coins such as Bitcoin.

However, he was still “washed out of the market.” Although he still held Bitcoin, he sold off most of it when Bitcoin had just broken through $100,000, and he also switched positions at the worst time for Ethereum’s decline, missing out on its rebound moment. Even as an industry veteran, accurately timing the market rhythm is still not an easy task for retail investors.

Where are the opportunities for retail investors?

The most direct feeling for full-time trader Johhny in this bull market is: “There are too many cryptocurrencies, not much innovation in the gameplay, insufficient liquidity, and it’s becoming increasingly difficult for retail investors to make money.”

During the last bull market, Johnny entered the crypto space with the hype of Musk promoting Dogecoin and made a fortune in the rising market. “At that time, I didn’t even know what a candlestick chart was, but I still made money,” Johnny recalled.

But the good days are gone and will not return.

“The previous investment strategies are no longer applicable for this round,” Johnny said. “In the past, I liked to ‘hold on for dear life,’ or buy whatever others shouted. But now I have to learn to build a trading system that suits me.”

“But even so, the upward potential for the ‘knockoff local dogs’ is not as great as it used to be; the market’s capital and technical thresholds are getting higher, and the profit effect is getting worse,” Johnny said.

So, in this bull market, why is it difficult for retail investors to make money? Where are the opportunities for retail investors?

According to Mark, there are two main reasons why retail investors find it difficult to make money in this round of bull market.

First of all, it’s because most retail investors have not yet transitioned from the logic of the previous bull market, and are still mainly holding altcoins, without buying mainstream coins.

Secondly, it’s because of frequent position changes. “Chasing highs and selling lows is a common trait among retail investors, and it’s also a major enemy of making profits,” Mark said.

Mark believes the main opportunities in this bull market lie in mainstream coins and Memecoins. However, with recent improvements in liquidity, he has also discovered a new opportunity - “Recently listed coins on Binance tend to have several times the price increase, unlike before when they would be halved.” He said, “So I made an adjustment, where the majority of my funds are still in Ethereum, but I will allocate a small portion to invest in new coins for higher returns.”

“But in fact, there aren’t many opportunities left for retail investors.” Mark is quite pessimistic; he believes that the future of the cryptocurrency market will trend towards being similar to the US stock market, where mainstream coins will be dominated by institutional funds, leaving retail investors with only the Memecoin market. However, making money in the Memecoin market requires intelligence, time, and energy, and these conditions will filter out a portion of unqualified investors, likely resulting in only 10% of people being able to make money in the Memecoin market.

Hippopotamus and Mark share similar views, but he believes that in addition to mainstream coins and Memecoins, attention can also be given to some coins that have emerged around trading derivatives.

Because the projects surrounding trading are useful and cannot be bypassed in the market, those that cannot be bypassed can survive, making it easier to reach a consensus.

“For retail investors, the first thing that needs to be adjusted is the mindset, which is to give up the illusion of getting rich quickly,” said Hippo. “In the future, there may not be opportunities for hundreds or even thousands of times with altcoins, but there are still opportunities with mainstream coins, which generally have a potential increase of about 3-5 times in each cycle. Then there’s the focus on Memecoins; every round will see new Memecoins emerging, and buying those phenomenon-level Memecoins will definitely yield significant returns.”

In the previous round, there were some low-threshold, retail-friendly low-risk money-making projects, such as new stock offerings and inscriptions, but the opportunities in this round are already scarce.

“Either do quantitative trading like me, although there are thresholds, the risks are still relatively low,” Chenghua said. “Actually, I think the opportunity of Bitcoin is quite fair for anyone, it just depends on whether one can seize it. Dollar-cost averaging is a strategy that I think is relatively easy to execute, as long as the time frame is extended, there is a high probability of achieving good returns.”

Is the cryptocurrency dividend period for retail investors about to disappear?

In fact, during the last cycle, with the entry of some institutional funds, there were already voices saying that it was the last cryptocurrency cycle belonging to retail investors.

Although retail investors are still participating in this bull market, this round of “institutionalization” is more serious.

The total AUM of Bitcoin spot ETFs reached 137.4 billion USD in July 2025, with over 400 institutional investors including pensions, sovereign funds, and other traditional giants investing in BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF.

Publicly listed companies hold 944,000 BTC, accounting for 4.8% of the circulating supply, with an increase of approximately 131,000 BTC in a single quarter.

Platforms like Coinbase and Binance have seen a surge in the scale of ETH liquid staking (LSD) products, with institutions packaging the yield attributes of ETH as fixed-income instruments.

The above data indicates that the cryptocurrency market is no longer a playground for retail investors.

Some media reports suggest that the $120,000 Bitcoin is merely a “capital feast without retail investors.” On that day, there were “no retail investors’ overnight wealth stories flooding the screens, only BlackRock’s 13 ETF purchase orders rolling silently every second.”

These scenes completely align with Mark’s expectations. “I think the golden era for retail investors to make money is over. It was quite clear that the second half of last year might have been the last window of opportunity,” he said.

In fact, he has already realized some profits and then switched to investing in A-shares.

“But I won’t completely exit; I think the market opportunities for Memes will always exist, and new things will emerge.” Mark planned this way.

Relatively speaking, Niner is more optimistic. She stated that she will continue to immerse herself in this market because she feels that “the opportunity to make big money is increasingly coming to retail investors.”

“Many people have talked about the last cycle for a long time. But I believe the period of barbaric growth is over, and now is the time for good opportunities to emerge,” Niner said. “I will not leave; I want to be a real Alpha player.”

The hippo is equally optimistic. He believes that the market is developing in an orderly and regulated direction, which means low risk and high returns for retail investors.

“With the influx of institutional funds, as long as we follow the mainstream coins, relatively speaking, we can still achieve pretty good returns. The most important thing is that this market is controllable, and the risks have been significantly reduced,” said Hippo. “At the low point of the cycle, Bitcoin may retrace 50%-70%, but during a bull market, it can rise several times. As long as we catch this rhythm and manage our expectations, investing in Bitcoin and other mainstream coins may be the easiest money-making project for retail investors.”

For Hippo, who has been deeply involved in the cryptocurrency field for 9 years, his relationship with this market is like “fish and water”—“I have navigated this market with ease and have never thought of leaving. Moreover, I believe that opportunities for retail investors have always been present.”

Perhaps, regardless of whether one is an optimist or a pessimist, once they have immersed themselves in this market, it is difficult to easily say goodbye. What truly matters is not whether the market offers opportunities, but rather having the ability to learn and keep up with the market, the vision to discover opportunities, and the execution power to seize those opportunities.