Messari: Kalshi’s Rise Relies on Sports Markets—What Happens When the Season Ends?

Source: Messari; Translation: Jinse Finance

Kalshi has experienced rapid and well-documented growth recently. Over the past six months, its monthly nominal trading volume grew by 775%, increasing from $664.4 million in May to $5.81 billion in November. During the same period, open interest (OI) increased by 266%, from $91.6 million on May 31 to $335.3 million on November 30.

Kalshi only surpassed Polymarket in weekly trading volume in August, but has led ever since. In the past 14 weeks, Kalshi ranked first for 12 of them. This winning streak is closely related to a key factor: on August 19, Kalshi partnered with Robinhood, allowing users to trade NFL and college football prediction markets directly through Robinhood’s market center.

This partnership broke ground in two key ways. First, it increased participation from non-crypto users, enabling them to trade prediction markets directly through their Robinhood accounts with no on-chain experience required. Second, it provided U.S. users with a legal and regulated way to trade sports event outcomes in prediction markets, something Polymarket did not offer at the time.

However, the more important change occurred beneath the surface. The surge in trading volume was not partially driven by sports events, but almost entirely fueled by them. In November, 90.5% ($5.23 billion) of Kalshi’s trading volume came from sports markets. Open interest (OI) showed the same trend: as of November 30, 44.6% ($149.4 million) of OI came from sports markets, making it the largest segment by both metrics on the platform.

This is neither inherently good nor bad. Sports markets have long been deeply embedded in U.S. culture, and Kalshi earns commissions from market orders regardless of the market’s category. But sports trading is seasonal, with its biggest driver—American football—having the shortest peak season. Kalshi’s explosive growth has coincided with football season’s peak, raising a key question: can it maintain this momentum once the season ends?

The team has already started expanding beyond the football field.

On October 17, Robinhood expanded Kalshi’s prediction market offerings to cover political and macroeconomic markets such as tariffs, Fed policy, and spending cuts.

On December 3, CNN announced a partnership with Kalshi to integrate prediction markets into its newsroom;

Shortly after, CNBC issued a similar announcement on December 4.

These are the right moves. They broaden the range of non-sports prediction markets users can participate in and increase exposure through mainstream media channels. CNN and CNBC, in particular, allow Kalshi to reach audiences who may never have encountered prediction markets before. But so far, sports events remain dominant. Whether this will change by 2026 depends on whether users can bring the same trading volume to these new markets as they have to football.

The Kalshi product is scaling up. But the next step is not just continued growth—it’s achieving industry diversification.