One of the clearest "MAGA" elaborations on China policy

Source: Chairman Rabbit

On September 26, 2024 (before the election), Vivek Ramaswamy gave his views on U.S. foreign policy in a long interview with Lex Fridman. This Vivek Ramaswamy was born in 1985, Indian, and his previous background was mainly in the business world. His characteristics are: deep understanding of the essence of Trump/MAGAISM, well versed in its underlying logic, good eloquence, and able to speak his thoughts relatively clearly. Unlike JD Vance, JD Vance is more humble and down-to-earth, while Vivek Ramaswamy is more elitist. After withdrawing from the primary, Vivek Ramaswamy quickly “merged” into Trump’s camp and quickly became a core team member, actively participating in the campaign, and making great contributions to Trump’s victory in the election.

Note:

1. This young man is now one of the most core people around Trump;

2. Deeply understand the ideological essence of Trump’s ‘true transmission’.

3. There is little ‘non-Consensus’ part with other MAGA politicians or opinion leaders (such as Tucker Carlson), whose opinions tend to converge and focus;

4. As a core member, it has significant influence on shaping the agenda, direction, strategy, policy, personnel selection, and other aspects that will impact and shape Trump’s second term.

Shortly before the publication of this article, Trump announced that Musk and Vivek would jointly lead the Department of Government, responsible for streamlining federal agencies, highlighting the importance of Vivek.

In the interview on September 26th, Vivek clearly explained his core views (or ‘spirit’) on his foreign policy towards China. I think this is the clearest expression of the Trump/MAGA core camp’s foreign policy so far.

The following are the core views of Vivek that I have summarized, which can basically be equated to the core position of Trump/MAGA political elites.

**1. Resolutely not engage in a Sino-U.S. hot war, not escalate into a world war: **China and the United States must avoid direct conflict (“hot war”), and not allow local conflicts or contradictions to escalate into a world war. Avoiding (the third) world war is a core demand of MAGA.

2. “Thucydides Trap” can and should be avoided: The so-called “Thucydides Trap” refers to the logic put forward by Westerners that the rise of emerging countries (the “second”) and the existing hegemon (the “first”) will inevitably lead to a war during the power transition. Vivek argues that the so-called Thucydides Trap can be completely avoided, and should not be constrained by the mainstream theory of international relations: “I don’t think we necessarily have to be a great power in decline, nor do I think it will inevitably lead to a major conflict with China”.

3. US Policy Toward China (Political/Diplomatic Relations):

**1) Adhere to the “One China Policy”, believing that it is neither necessary nor desirable to deviate from the policy the United States has followed for the past several decades

**2) “Strategic Clarity” (strategic ambiguity): It is believed that the past “strategic ambiguity” is incorrect. “All world wars are caused by strategic ambiguity because powerful nations do not know what the other side is going to do.” Therefore, the approach of “strategic clarity” should be adopted, with clear red lines and bottom lines for both sides, and complete alignment of granularity.

3) Interpretation of the red lines/bottom lines on both sides: The Chinese red line is Taiwan’s acquisition of independent status, which is absolutely unacceptable; the American red line is military conflict in the Taiwan Strait. This has been the consistent expression of both sides for the past few decades, and each side’s red line and bottom line should be clearly defined.

4) Believing that as long as both sides clarify their bottom line, conflicts will not occur: As long as both sides clarify the boundaries and bottom line, conflicts can be avoided, ‘no need to worry about conflicts.’ ‘Clarity’ means that each side knows and believes what the other side says, and provides feedback to each other (‘receipt’).

4. U.S.-China Relations (Economic and Trade Relations): It is believed that the United States must depeg from China. Here, Vivek is not speaking from the perspective of revitalizing domestic industries in the United States, but from the perspective of managing geopolitical conflicts between China and the United States. He believes that first, key materials, essential goods, and the Supply Chain must depeg from China; second, sensitive industries such as defense industry must completely depeg from China; third, the United States cannot rely on the “modern way of life” provided by China (meaning, the United States cannot survive without “China”). The purpose of reducing dependence/depegging is to minimize the impact on the U.S. side after conflicts occur. [Note, their logic is not to minimize the possibility of bilateral conflicts by strengthening and deepening the ties between China and the United States, but rather to move away from China and reduce the cost in case conflicts occur. This is actually based on their fundamental judgment that, for various internal and external reasons, the United States and China cannot coexist and win-win in the long run politically and economically. “Since we cannot come together, it is better to stay away as far as possible.”]

5. US Policy Toward Other Countries (“Encirclement”):

**1) believes that it is necessary to weaken the Sino-Russian alliance and unite Russia with China. As long as the Sino-Russian alliance is weakened, the likelihood of conflict (including in Eurasia and East Asia) can be reduced. Ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict will serve this function; In addition, the United States should try to reach a “reasonable protocol” with Russia, draw Russia to the side of the United States, and convince China that Russia will not “automatically” and tacitly support China [The core idea of MAGA is: to repair the relationship between the United States and Russia, to weaken the relationship between China and Russia in the triangular relationship between China and the United States and Russia, and even to "unite Russia in China]. In the past, the logic of the establishment / Washington elite / “deep state” was resolutely anti-Russian, and it was impossible to go one step towards the United Russia. Trump/MAGA is not only more realistic, but also recognizes Russia in terms of institutions and values, and even secretly admires Russia]

**2) Believe that it is necessary to strengthen relations with allies, such as Japan, South Korea, India, and the Philippines. ** It is believed that the United States cannot seek to depeg with China on the one hand, and on the other hand, seek to depeg with Japan, South Korea, India and Philippines and other allies, and exacerbate economic and trade conflicts with these countries, but only bent on moving the manufacturing industry back to the United States. You can’t have both; You can’t have it both ways. In order to restrain China, the United States should strengthen its ties with these countries, and in the end it is a matter of “choosing one of the two.” It specifically mentions India, with which relations should be strengthened and China’s ties to the Middle East (e.g., oil supplies) through the Indian Ocean/Andaman Sea should be weakened

6. Break free from traditional/orthodox international relations theory. It is believed that the United States now needs ‘leadership’ and ‘cannot rely solely on international relations theory to form its views’. To break free from traditional thinking and find new ideas and approaches, only politicians like Trump can help achieve this point. [It can be seen that Trump/MAGA does not believe in the trap of orthodox Western international relations theory (i.e., from Graham Allison to Mearsheimer), which is the underlying theoretical foundation that has influenced and shaped the Washington establishment, the ‘deep state,’ and the military-industrial complex since the Cold War. The result is that the US continues to get involved in and trapped in external conflicts. From JD Vance and Vivek Ramaswamy to Tucker Carlson, the core MAGA opinion leaders share very consistent views].