# 经济数据指标

#经济数据指标 Seeing this set of data makes my heart feel a bit heavy. The issuance of U.S. short-term zero-coupon bonds has reached a new high—$25.4 trillion, accounting for 69.4% of the total national debt. What does this indicate? It indicates that the government is using short-term debt to "borrow new to pay off old," much like using the minimum payment on a credit card to sustain life, which poses significant risks.
What really worries me is the logic behind this: once inflation rebounds and the Federal Reserve is forced to raise interest rates, the cost of interest will become uncontrollable.

#经济数据指标 The expectation of interest rate cuts has been fully reflected in stock prices, which is the core judgment given by the JPMorgan team. Looking at the current situation, the US stock market has returned to historical highs, and institutional investors generally tend to lock in profits before the end of the year. What does this mean? There is indeed pressure to take profits in the short term.
But from the perspective of the blockchain, it is more interesting—large capital movements often manifest ahead of macro data. If we really need to enter a consolidation zone, we should pay attenti

#经济数据指标 At the handover of the Fed chairman, the market has instead become cautious about expectations of interest rate cuts. According to the pricing of interest rate futures, the maximum cut by the end of next year is 75 basis points, equivalent to three rate cuts. What does this mean? It means that money will not be as loose as previously speculated.
This is actually a signal for us hair-pulling people — economic expectations are tightening, project parties may be more cautious in financing, and the intensity of airdrops will not be as fierce as during a bull market. But conversely, this i

#经济数据指标 Wow, the issuance of US T-Bills has exceeded 25.4 trillion, accounting for 69.4% of the total debt? What is going on here? 😅 With short-term debt piling up, if inflation rebounds and the Fed continues to raise interest rates, the interest costs will explode directly. The debt crisis is really accelerating, and this will inevitably hit the market.
The recent surge in the crypto market is understandable; with the economic fundamentals in such a poor state, the money printing machine will inevitably start up. What are you still hesitating about? Risk assets are definitely going to rebou

#经济数据指标 The Fed's "do-or-die battle" is worth keeping an eye on. Half of the officials oppose an interest rate cut, yet Powell insists on pushing it forward. The magnitude of this disagreement directly affects the future direction of policy — which in turn impacts your assets.
I have experienced too many instances of "data coming out and reversing" in the market. This time, the core issue is quite tricky: is the slowdown in job growth due to weak demand or supply contraction? The answer is different, and the decision-making direction completely reverses. The market now takes interest rate

#经济数据指标 Seeing Morgan Stanley's optimistic outlook for the US stock market in 2026, I wasn't quick to jump on the bandwagon with excitement. These macro judgments do have reference value—improvements in corporate earnings, moderate adjustments in the labor market, and Fed policy support—but what really matters for our personal asset allocation is not the prediction itself.
I have always believed that no matter how good the economic data indicators look, they must be implemented in your own position management. Morgan Stanley mentioned that small-cap stocks and discretionary consumer g

#经济数据指标 Seeing this prediction from Morgan Stanley, I recalled those discussions about the "eternal bull run" from 2015. Back then, analysts confidently drew attractive curves, and the non-essential consumer goods zone was also highly anticipated, but what happened? In 2016, a "black swan" shattered confidence into pieces.
However, that being said, this logic cannot be completely dismissed. The improvement in corporate profits, a moderately weak labor market rather than a sharp deterioration, and the shift in Federal Reserve policy are indeed moving in a positive direction. Interestingly, the

#经济数据指标 Seeing the Fed's recent actions, it is indeed rare for half of the colleagues to oppose the interest rate cut. Powell is fighting a desperate battle, and ultimately, he has to rely on the policy statement to stem the bleeding— a 25 basis point rate cut paired with hawkish wording. The real test of this combination lies in how the market interprets the phrase "the threshold for future easing has been raised."
The impact on the copy trading strategy is significant. The interpretation of economic data is now highly divided—whether employment is due to weak demand or supply contractio