Gate News message, March 26: CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) "Fed Watch" tool data shows: The probability of the Federal Reserve raising rates by 25bp in April is 5.2%, with a 94.8% probability of maintaining rates unchanged. The probability of the Federal Reserve cumulatively raising rates by 25bp through June is 11.7%, with a 0.4% probability of cumulatively raising rates by 50bp, and an 87.9% probability of maintaining rates unchanged.

Gate News reports that on March 25, CME "Fed Watch" data shows: the probability of the Federal Reserve raising rates by 25 basis points in April is 9.3%, with a 90.7% probability of maintaining rates unchanged. The probability of the Federal Reserve cumulatively raising rates by 25 basis points through June is 17.1%, with an 80.2% probability of maintaining rates unchanged.

Gate News reports that on March 24, according to CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve raising rates by 25 basis points in April is 7.2%, with a 92.8% probability of keeping rates unchanged. The probability of the Federal Reserve cumulatively raising rates by 25 basis points by June is 9.1%, with a 0.2% probability of cumulatively raising rates by 50 basis points, and a 90.7% probability of keeping rates unchanged.

Gate News message, March 23: CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) "Fed Watch" tool data shows: The probability of the Federal Reserve raising rates by 25bp in April is 12.4%, with a 87.6% probability of keeping rates unchanged. The probability of the Federal Reserve cumulatively raising rates by 25bp through June is 21.9%, with a 1.6% probability of cumulatively raising rates by 50bp, and a 76.5% probability of keeping rates unchanged.

3月19日，比特币回落至70,000美元，以太坊跌至2,160美元。美联储维持利率不变，油价上涨，伊朗袭击海湾能源设施，推动原油和天然气价格暴涨。加密市场强平头寸近6亿美元，多数为多头，市场期货未平仓合约下降，主流币资金费率转负。

美國2月PPI年率為3.4%，高於預期的2.9%，創2022年以來新高，分析師指出此數據未受近期地緣政治事件影響，導致交易員下調對美聯儲2026年降息的押注。

Bitcoin's upward momentum weakened after touching $75,000, with market concerns about a near-term peak. Despite institutional accumulation, total positions rose to $5.8 billion, but prices face macro uncertainty pressures. Bitcoin ETF inflows exceeding $1.5 billion support the price. Market focus is on the Federal Reserve meeting and geopolitical situation, which may affect short-term trends.

Aptus Capital Advisors的約翰·泰納表示，美聯儲即將召開的會議將在中東衝突和油價上漲的背景下進行，市場關注點陣圖和鮑威爾的措辭，降息預期已被取消，但若衝突結束可能會迅速恢復。

中東局勢持續緊張，投資者關注高油價對通膨的影響及美聯儲利率決議。美股小幅上漲，能源股表現良好，比特幣在7.4萬美元附近橫盤。市場預期美聯儲維持利率不變，關注鮑威爾講話。

3月17日，比特币一度触及75,912美元，但随后回落至74,372美元，显示抛压仍存。主流加密资产周内普遍上涨，以太坊涨13.3%。市场分析指出，近期涨幅主要由衍生品市场驱动，机构资金流入支持市场，然而宏观政策的不确定性将影响后续走势。