BTC dips slightly in the past hour (-0.33%): Middle East conflict escalates and the stronger US dollar resonates to pressure it

From 01:00 to 02:00 UTC on July 13, 2026, BTC traded within a narrow range of $63,658.1–$64,069.0 USDT, with a low volatility of 0.64%, a return of -0.33%, and an overall weak consolidation pattern. Market attention has increased compared to the previous few days, but trading activity remains thin; in the short term, neither bulls nor bears show clear directional intent.

The main driver behind this movement is a sharp escalation of Middle East geopolitical conflict, which has triggered broader macro risk-averse sentiment. After the United States launched a military strike against Iran, Iran retaliated, leading to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz (the number of transiting vessels fell from over 130 to 22). Brent crude oil prices jumped more than 3% to $78.68 per barrel. The surge in oil prices has raised inflation expectations, and the market’s probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates twice again by the end of the year has increased to 52.1%. The U.S. dollar index has also surged significantly. Under the transmission chain of “rising oil prices → sticky inflation (inflation persistence) → increased rate-hike expectations → dollar strengthening,” BTC, as a risk asset, faces pressure.

Meanwhile, volatility is amplified by several secondary factors: deep internal disagreement within the Federal Reserve over the rate-hike path; concerns about the regulatory outlook after New Hampshire rejected a $100 million Bitcoin support bond proposal; and American Bitcoin Corp’s share price plunging by about 97% year-to-date, reflecting severe underlying distress in the mining sector. Order book data shows the buy-sell depth ratio is only 0.11, indicating overwhelming sell-side dominance. There is also a large sell wall of 0.4035 BTC at $63,998.3, forming short-term overhead resistance. On the technical side, the 15-minute ADX is 41.96, suggesting a stronger intraday trend, but the moving averages remain bearish, implying downside momentum has not been fully unleashed.

Key volatility risks remain. Going forward, focus on the Strait of Hormuz’s reopening status, the market’s pricing of the rate-hike path following the Federal Reserve’s July policy meeting, and Trump’s policy developments toward Iran. Watch support at $63,572, and resistance in the $64,000–$64,433 range. If oil prices break above $80 or the U.S. dollar index strengthens further, BTC may test the $63,500 support level.