Gold and silver are rising strongly, Bitcoin is struggling in September, and the market is waiting for guidance from the US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP).

Driven by weak U.S. labor data, rising expectations for Fed rate cuts, and technical breakthroughs, gold and silver prices continue to be in a strong rising trend. After reaching a historical high of $3,578.50, the price of gold has experienced a short-term pullback but has now risen back above $3,550, demonstrating its strong pump momentum. Silver also shows strong bullish momentum, with prices breaking through $39.40, and is expected to continue moving towards the $42-43 range.

At the same time, Bitcoin is experiencing its historic “September struggle,” with the price dropping from $124,000 in mid-August to $109,000. Despite the influx of institutional funds and support from spot ETFs, Bitcoin's seasonal weakness remains evident. The market is closely watching the upcoming non-farm payroll data, which will have a key impact on the short-term trends of the dollar, gold, silver, and Bitcoin, and may provide further clues for the Fed's interest rate cut path.

Technical Breakthroughs of Gold and Silver and Macro Drivers

The price of gold (XAUUSD) has paused temporarily after reaching a historic high of $3,578.50 and has pulled back to the breakout level around $3,500, before preparing for the next rise. This brief pullback reflects short-term profit-taking in the market ahead of the upcoming non-farm payroll data. Currently, gold prices have rebounded above $3,550, stabilizing the bullish momentum.

At the same time, the recently released U.S. economic data has strengthened the case for a Fed rate cut. The latest figures show that the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. increased by 8,000 to 237,000, exceeding market expectations, indicating that the labor market is softening. The upcoming non-farm payroll report will be key in determining the next move for gold prices.

Technical Analysis of Gold

From the daily chart, the spot gold price has broken through the rising triangle pattern and reached a new high above $3,500. This breakout occurred after a four-month consolidation, which is significant and suggests that gold prices may continue to pump in the coming weeks. Strong support is located between $3,450 and $3,500. Although the RSI indicator on the daily chart shows that prices are currently in an overbought state, it is expected that after a brief pullback, gold prices will resume their rise.

Technical Analysis of Silver

The daily chart of spot silver (XAG) shows that after forming a strong bullish price trend above the 35-36 dollar range, the price has broken through 39.40 dollars. The bullish hammer candlesticks formed multiple times at the 50-day moving average indicate strong buying interest. The breakout above 39.40 dollars suggests that silver prices may continue to move towards the resistance zone of 42 to 43 dollars. However, the RSI indicator on the daily chart shows that silver is also in an overbought state, indicating that a pullback may occur before the next round of rise.

Dollar Index (DXY) Technical Analysis:

The daily chart of the US Dollar Index shows that it has formed a bearish flag pattern. Currently, the index is consolidating at the support level of this pattern, reflecting uncertainty in price and insufficient momentum. The market is waiting for Friday's non-farm payroll data, which could determine the next move of the US Dollar Index and have a key impact on the direction of the gold and silver markets.

Bitcoin's “September Curse” and New Developments in Institutions

(Source: Coinglass)

Bitcoin's price continues its historic “September struggle,” falling from $124,000 in mid-August to around $109,000 at the beginning of September. This seasonal weakness is not unfamiliar to traders. According to CoinGlass, since 2013, Bitcoin has recorded negative returns in 8 out of the last 12 Septembers, with an average return of -3.77%, making it the worst-performing month of the year.

The current wave of selling also reflects the trends in the traditional stock market, with the S&P 500 index having an average return rate of -1.2% in September. Bitcoin rebounded to $112,600 on Wednesday, but was quickly sold off during the Asian trading session.

New Developments from Institutions and Interest Rate Cut Expectations

The spot Bitcoin ETF launched in January 2024 has significantly changed the market structure. These funds trade billions of dollars daily and have accumulated a large Bitcoin position by 2025. The balance sheets of listed companies have also increased their Bitcoin holdings. The influx of institutional funds provides strong support during traditional weak periods.

The Fed's meeting on September 16-17 has also drawn the attention of traders, with futures market pricing showing a 97.6% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut. Fed Governor Christopher Waller publicly supports this move. Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting at the end of August also took a dovish stance, suggesting that due to changes in economic risks, it may be necessary to ease monetary policy.

Weak employment data has increased uncertainty.

The ADP private employment report released on Wednesday showed that only 54,000 jobs were added in August, falling short of the expected 75,000. This weak data shook traditional markets and led to a pullback in Bitcoin. The official employment report set to be released on Friday will provide a clearer picture of the health of the labor market.

Labor force data shows that the number of unemployed people in the U.S. (7.24 million) now exceeds the number of job vacancies (7.18 million), a shift that supports the Fed's rationale for interest rate cuts. Despite market tensions, data from Hyblock shows that both retail and institutional traders are buying Bitcoin as prices fall. This indicates that, despite seasonal headwinds, underlying demand remains intact. Historically, October often shakes off the weakness of September, with Bitcoin recording gains for six consecutive years, making it the second strongest month after November, earning the nickname “Uptober.”

Conclusion

As the US dollar index faces bearish patterns, while gold and silver are strongly rising due to macro fundamentals and technical breakthroughs, Bitcoin is experiencing its unique “September curse.” Although this seasonal weakness has a long history, unlike previous years, institutional funds represented by spot ETFs are providing unprecedented bottom support for Bitcoin. The upcoming non-farm payroll data will be key in determining the market direction in the short term, but in the long run, if the Fed lowers interest rates due to a softening labor market, the resulting liquidity will inject new vitality into Bitcoin and the entire crypto market. With the arrival of October, Bitcoin is expected to shake off its current struggles and regain its upward momentum.